If a bill authorizing a tribal racetrack casino in Washington County reaches the desk of Gov. John Baldacci, he is “unlikely to sign” it, his spokesman said Friday.

“He’s sending the message to those who want the expansion of casino gambling that he doesn’t support it,” press secretary Lynn Kippax said Friday afternoon.

News of the governor’s intentions came amid the release of the state fiscal office’s projection that within five years, a new tribal racetrack with 1,500 slot machines in Washington County would pump about $5 million a year into the state’s general fund.

The governor’s likely inaction on the bill raises the stakes in the debate over whether to allow the Passamaquoddy Tribe to operate a racino, which supporters say would aid the region’s ailing economy.

Under the state constitution, the governor has 10 days to sign or veto the bill. If he does not sign the bill and the Legislature is still in session, the bill would become law as if he had signed it. If the Legislature adjourns – as it is expected to do on June 15 – before the 10 days are up, the bill would become law unless Baldacci vetoes it within three days of this Legislature reconvening. Unless called into a special session, lawmakers would not be expected to return until January.

Of course, before arriving on the governor’s desk, the bill must first win favor in the House and Senate with the House likely to take up the legislation next week. Opponents have concentrated their efforts in the Senate, where the bill’s passage is believed to be less likely.

On Friday, the bill’s sponsor, Passamaquoddy Rep. Fred Moore, said he expected the Legislature to consider the matter well before the adjournment date. He said he preferred Baldacci withhold his signature rather than veto the legislation, as many have speculated.

“It works for me and thousands of other people in Washington County,” said Moore, whose tribe has two reservations in Maine’s easternmost county.

Supporters of the tribe’s plan say the racino would provide much needed infusion of money and jobs into the economically depressed area, where jobless rates are double the state average. The facility, they say, will become a destination for tourists from the Canadian Maritimes.

The tribe’s plan is modeled after the state law that was signed after voters approved allowing slots at the state’s commercial racetracks. Bangor Raceway became the only eligible site after local voters approved the plan at referendum.

Like the Bangor facility, the Washington County racino is expected to add to the state’s revenue stream, according to the state’s Office of Fiscal and Program Review.

The office’s projections shows a net gain for the general fund of $4.8 million in fiscal year 2008-09 assuming the licensing of a facility with 1,500 slot machines by the end of that fiscal year.

“The numbers make the argument,” said Moore, whose proposal would also contribute about $4 million a year to the Fund for Healthy Maine once the racino reaches its maximum capacity, according to the analysis.

But opponents of the plan were leery of the financial projections contained within the analysis.

“Where does that money come from?” asked Val Landry, spokeswoman for the anti-gambling group Casinos No!, arguing the money will come chiefly from local gamblers. “I’m sure that doesn’t show the true cost of increased law enforcement, increased embezzlement and bankruptcies that come with casinos.”