GEDs count as high school diplomas

Mark Twain’s famous quote about there being three kinds of lies could not be any truer than in the case of measuring high school graduation rates. A recent editorial, “Counting Graduates” (BDN, July 1), politely called the state’s official graduation rates “a crock.” This was not an instance of journalistic hyperbole. It’s a pretty fair assessment.

There is, however, one important problem with the assessment of The Education Trust echoed in the BDN editorial. The actual high school graduation rate in Maine is higher, not drastically lower, than the official measure. The reason: The Education Trust (along with many others) doesn’t count General Equivalency Diplomas (GEDs) or Adult Education Diplomas (AEDs).

We are certainly not advocating that it is good when young people drop out of traditional high school and obtain their diplomas using the GED route. But GEDs are diplomas. It is a mistake to think that GEDs don’t count. It is an important oversimplification to think once a high school dropout, always a high school dropout.

Different data sources indicate that a high percentage, indeed well over half, of high school dropouts go on to earn their diplomas. Moreover, the data also indicate that many of these so-called dropouts earn their diplomas while they are still in their teens.

According to the Maine Department of Education, the state’s graduation rate from 1998-99 through 2003-04 was 87 percent. But according to The Education Trust study, Maine’s actual graduation rate in 2000-01 was 72 percent. Other data, though, indicate that both numbers are well off the mark.

One source of relevant data is the “Current Population Survey” (CPS) administered by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. From 2000 through 2004, 92 percent of Maine residents ages 25 to 64 had a high school diploma. This proportion was 91 percent among 20- to 24-year-olds. These levels of high school attainment are clearly inconsistent with a graduation rate of 72 percent, or even 87 percent.

The national CPS data from 2000 through 2004 also indicate that among 25- to 64-year-olds with high school diplomas but no college, 10.1 percent of those diplomas were obtained using the GED route. For Maine this proportion was 12.6 percent. Moreover, these proportions were not much different for 20- to 24-year-olds (10.9 percent nationally and 11.2 percent in Maine); suggesting that the majority of the GEDs are obtained well before reaching age 25. This is confirmed in U.S. Department of Education national data which suggest that about two-thirds of GEDs are awarded before age 25.

Another source of relevant data is the Maine Department of Education. Combining a couple of their data files reveals that of all the diplomas awarded in Maine from 1998-99 through 2000-01 (the latest years available), 20 percent were GEDs and AEDs.

On the other hand, though, close examination of Maine Department of Education data also reveal that there is substantial merit to The Education Trust’s contention that there is large systematic underreporting of dropouts from traditional high school. Combining a couple of Department of Education data files shows that there are substantially more GEDs and AEDs awarded in Maine than the prior dropouts reported in Maine. Yes, you read this correctly. There are many more diplomas awarded to “dropouts” than the reported number of dropouts.

From 1998-99 through 2000-01 Maine averaged 2,110 reported dropouts per year. Over the same period an average of 3,278 nontraditional degrees were awarded annually. Thus, even if every single reported “dropout” subsequently earned a non-traditional diploma, there are still an extra 1,168 (55.4 percent) GEDs.

Some of these extra GEDs are going to those who dropped out before 1998-99. But it is inconceivable that this is close to the whole explanation. Both the official number of dropouts and the number of nontraditional diplomas awarded have been fairly stable for years. There are not disproportionate numbers of older dropouts to earn GEDs. It is also possible that disproportionate numbers of dropouts have been moving to Maine before obtaining their GEDs. But it is inconceivable that this could account for anything but a small fraction of the unaccounted-for dropouts.

The likely explanation of the missing dropouts is The Education Trust’s argument that there is considerable systematic underreporting of dropouts from traditional high school. They appear to be right in exposing the misrepresentation of the facts. But The Education Trust is wrong in perpetuating the common misconception that dropping out of high school means the end of the students’ education or the end of their economic prospects.

Not only do many so-called dropouts earn diplomas, some even go on to earn college degrees. Moreover, GED recipients have substantially higher wages and labor force participation, and substantially lower incidence of unemployment than real high school dropouts. In fact, CPS data reveal that GED holders have essentially the same rate of labor force participation as holders of traditional high school diplomas. Wages for GED holders are only slightly less than the wages for traditional diploma holders. The unemployment rate among GED recipients, however, is considerably higher than that for traditional diploma recipients.

Thus, dropping out of high school generally does hurt the educational and economic prospects of young people. But it is important to keep in mind that it does not end them either.

Philip Trostel is a professor of economics and public policy and Olena Trymaylo is an economics student at the University of Maine.