Islands of development sprinkled within 426,000 acres of Plum Creek property in the Moosehead Lake region could create 800 new jobs for a $41.5 million average annual contribution to Maine’s economy, according to an economic consultant hired by the company.

Tuesday, Plum Creek Timber Co. released an analysis by University of Southern Maine economist Charles Colgan that predicts the benefits of a completed proposal, including 975 houses, a sawmill, and two resorts offering a combined 230 rooms and 60 cabins, to be constructed over the next 20 years.

Overall, Colgan says, the plan “would likely have significant positive effects on a regional economy that has been experiencing economic difficulty.”

Ken Spaulding, of RESTORE: The North Woods, one of the groups that oppose Plum Creek’s plan, Tuesday questioned the choice to predict benefits based on descriptions of resorts and a sawmill which are, at present, “purely speculative.”

Indeed, Colgan places a caveat in his report stating that future development will depend entirely on the ability of Plum Creek to sell its rezoned land to developers and prospective homeowners.

But local Plum Creek spokesman Jim Lehner said Tuesday that while he is not courting buyers for the resort and campground properties, marketing timberland rezoned for development has never been a problem at the company’s similar projects across the country.

Moosehead region Realtors also speak of skyrocketing values for lakeside property, and based on other development projects in the region, predict fairly quick sales of the residential lots. Nearly all of the lots in Plum Creek’s First Roach Pond subdivision, approved two years ago, have already been bought.

Most of the early benefit predicted by Colgan stems directly from construction, according to the analysis. Plum Creek has capped the number of housing lots to be created per year at 125, so home building will stretch on for at least a decade.

He estimates a local construction industry boom from residential development alone of $10.5 million annually from 2006 to 2018 and $1 million annually from 2019 to 2023, with the peak years near 2012.

When the building is complete, however, employment would likely shift to the potential resorts and sawmill, as well as to ecotourism businesses that could spring up in response to the development, Colgan said.

That sort of economic development is music to the ears of Greenville resident Luke Muzzy, who sits on the Moosehead Development Council and who, four months ago, took a job with Plum Creek.

Greenville’s population shrank by 13.85 percent between the 1990 and 2000 census counts alone. But people have been leaving the area in search of work for much longer, Muzzy said.

“We don’t want to see it turn into Bangor, we just want it back the way it was when I was a kid,” he said, stumping for the Plum Creek proposal Tuesday.

Jonathan Carter, former Green gubernatorial candidate and one of the leaders of a “Save Moosehead” coalition created to oppose the project, scoffed Tuesday at Colgan’s work, pointing out that it was bought and paid for by Plum Creek.

There’s no doubt that development will create jobs – at least temporarily – but the state needs to consider whether other alternatives, such as a Maine Woods National Park, would actually be a better investment, he said. The contentious park proposal includes much of Plum Creek’s land within its 3.2 million-acre proposed boundary.

In a 2001 study – which was paid for by RESTORE – economist Thomas Michael Power predicted that a national park could bring at least 3,600 additional jobs and between $109 million and $435 million in annual retail sales to Maine.

Other recent studies have documented rising incomes and populations in the counties that border national parks, Carter said, proposing that development be targeted toward existing communities, like Greenville.

“There are alternatives to this wilderness sprawl,” he said.

Maine’s Land Use Regulation Commission, the agency that will decide whether to approve Plum Creek’s plan, will hold a series of “scoping sessions” in coming weeks to offer the public a chance to comment on the proposal before the commissioners begin their formal process. The sessions are as follows, and all will begin at 5:30 p.m.:

. Tuesday, Aug. 16, Greenville High School auditorium.

. Thursday, Aug. 18, Rockwood Community Building.

. Monday, Aug. 22, Sky Lodge Conference Center in Moose River.

. Wednesday, Aug. 24, Maple Hill Farm Inn & Conference Center in Hallowell.

To view the economic analysis in its entirety, contact Aga Pinette of the Maine Land Use Regulation Commission at 287-8786 or agnieszka.pinette@maine.gov