Survey finds Baldacci bounce, gay rights law favored

Mainers’ opinions of Gov. John Baldacci appear to be on an upswing, according to a poll released Thursday showing 53 percent of those surveyed having a favorable view of the Bangor Democrat.

The telephone survey, conducted July 23-30, marks a stark contrast to the dismal approval ratings Baldacci received earlier this summer, with one May poll showing his favorability rating at just 29 percent.

Patrick Murphy, president of Strategic Marketing Services, the Portland company that conducted the latest poll, attributed some of Baldacci’s bounce to the legislative recess and his high profile in the fight to save Maine military bases from closure as part of the Base Realignment and Closure, or BRAC, process.

“He’s been front and center on [BRAC], and people see he’s genuinely working hard on that,” said Murphy, whose company’s survey of 400 likely Maine voters has a 5 percent margin of error.

Maine Republicans, who already have fielded two major candidates to take on Baldacci in 2006, pointed to responses to the poll to bolster their case against the incumbent governor.

“It confirms what we already know, that he has failed to lead on the issues most important to the people of Maine,” said Maine Republican Party spokesman Barry Flynn, citing the poll’s findings that 60 percent of Mainers – the highest percentage since March 2004 -believe the state economy is heading in the wrong direction.

To date, Republicans Peter Cianchette of South Portland, Baldacci’s 2002 opponent, and state Sen. Peter Mills of Cornville have issued challenges to Baldacci.

Independent Nancy Oden of Jonesboro and Republican Stephen Stimpson of Bangor also have declared candidacies.

The SMS survey also gauged Baldacci’s job approval rating, a separate question, at 50 percent – an improvement over the 43 percent rating found in the May poll.

But even at 50 percent – which puts him in the middle of the road compared to other U.S. governors – Baldacci’s job approvals have slipped significantly in a year, based on Murphy’s polling. In September 2004 and February 2005, 68 percent of Mainers believed Baldacci was doing a good job.

While Baldacci’s name won’t appear on the ballot for more than a year, the poll also assessed Mainers’ thoughts on the gay rights referendum coming up in just three months.

According to the survey, 61 percent said they either favored or were leaning toward keeping the new law, which adds sexual orientation to classes protected from discrimination by the Maine Human Rights Act.

Voter sentiment on gay rights historically has been hard to predict, however, and the new law’s supporters, while encouraged by the poll’s findings, vowed to continue the push to bring their voters to the polls on Nov. 8.

“This is all about turnout,” said Jesse Connolly, campaign manager for Maine Won’t Discriminate, a group fighting to keep the new law. “We’re working to build a field campaign and show everyone that Maine has zero tolerance for discrimination.”

Officials at the Christian Civic League of Maine, one of several conservative religious groups seeking to repeal the new law, gave little credence to the survey’s findings.

“Polls are notoriously unreliable and are often used to create public opinion rather than measure it,” said league spokesman Tim Russell, noting that past surveys erroneously predicted similar support for earlier – but failed – efforts to protect homosexuals from discrimination.

Maine voters have been difficult to pin down on the issue. Once, in 1995, they soundly rejected an attempt to forbid state and local governments from enacting gay rights laws.

In 1998 and 2000, however, Maine voters narrowly opposed gay rights initiatives similar to that which will appear as Question 1 on the Nov. 8 ballot.

This year, the debate will take another turn, with opponents contending the new law, if not repealed, will pave the way for gay marriage.

The law, as written, clarifies that it does not sanction such unions.

The SMS poll also measured public support for a tribal racino, a racetrack casino, in Washington County, finding 56 percent in favor and 38 percent opposed.

The Passamaquoddy Tribe won legislative support for such a plan, but Baldacci has vowed to veto it upon lawmakers’ return in January. Tribal officials have since promised a November 2006 referendum on the issue.

The SMS survey also found strong support, 69 percent, for the Dirigo Health program, which aims to provide affordable health coverage to small businesses and families. Also, the majority of Mainers, 52 percent, opposed extending the state’s term limits laws to allow lawmakers to serve longer in Augusta.

Forty-eight percent of those surveyed also believed the Red Sox would repeat as World Series champions, while 30 percent did not. Twenty-two percent were undecided.