ORONO – Removing Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip is an important step forward for peace, but without rebuilding the economy for the Palestinians, fears of instability and renewed violence remain, George Mitchell, former Senate majority leader turned peace broker, said Sunday.

“By itself, it won’t solve the problem, but as an important step toward resumed negotiations and, hopefully, an overall settlement, it can and will be, I think, very significant,” Mitchell said, speaking to reporters during a break from a ceremony at the University of Maine in Orono for the 2005 recipients of the scholarship that bears his family’s name.

The scholarships were given to 130 Maine high school students as part of Mitchell’s decade-old project to increase opportunities for Maine’s young people.

Mitchell spoke from experience as he addressed the issue of tenuous peace efforts between Israel and the Palestinians. Appointed in 2000 to lead an international investigation into violence in the Middle East, he also helped broker peace in Northern Ireland.

Despite the visible progress in the Gaza Strip, Mitchell cautioned that without the rebuilding of the Palestinian economy – an infusion of jobs, opportunity and a sense of hope – any peace effort could falter.

“Where there is no opportunity, where there is no job, there’s nothing for people to look forward to,” he said. “There you have the ingredients for instability and violence wherever you may be.”

The Maine statesman addressed a number of issues, including Iraq. He also indicated his opposition to recommendations that two Maine military bases be closed.

With Iraq struggling to establish a constitution, the Bush administration has unrealistic expectations of establishing an American-style democracy, Mitchell said. The real danger is that what develops is a government that will have strong ties with Iran, just at a time when the United States and its allies are pressing Iran over nuclear power and armament issues.

Mitchell also said he foresees dramatic and potentially dangerous changes in the American military presence in Iraq. He contended that Bush’s planned reductions are more politically oriented and inflexible to meet changing circumstances.

With an Iraqi election looming – sometime this fall or early next year – Mitchell predicted that the Bush administration will temporarily bump up the American military presence in that country, only to reduce it substantially in time for the 2006 U.S. election.

“The administration simply won’t, in my judgment, go into the next election here with the status quo in Iraq,” Mitchell said. “I think you’ll see a very substantial reduction in American force levels, and, hopefully, the Iraqis by then will be able to take care of their security situation.”

Closer to home, Mitchell recalled how, while he was in the U.S. Senate and as majority leader, efforts to close the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard were blocked by strong countermeasures and reasoning by the state and delegation leaders.

Once again the shipyard is on the proposed chopping block as is the Brunswick Naval Air Station.

Mitchell said he opposes their closure, although he admits that because of his duties elsewhere he was not “in a position to prejudge it.” Mitchell is chairman of a New York law firm, chairman of the Walt Disney Co. and recently was co-chairman of a congressional commission that has made recommendations for reforms at the United Nations.

“It’s a different time and a different circumstance now,” Mitchell said, adding, “I think it’s still wrong, and I hope they aren’t closed.”