SPREADING THE FLU WORD

When the next flu pandemic strikes, about 90,000 to 200,000 Americans will die if advanced medicines are available and state agencies have planned properly, according to an estimate by the Centers for Disease Control. If there are no vaccines and the planning looks like New Orleans last month, many, many times that number could die. Congress this month will spend an enormous amount of time dissecting the evacuation and disaster plans for hurricanes; it should look again at the nation’s readiness to combat avian flu.

The bird-flu virus that most worries scientists is called H5N1, which is usually confined to domestic and migratory birds but could mutate into a dangerous human pathogen. Last spring, the secretary-general of the World Health Organization, Dr. Lee Jong-Wook, called the virus “a serious human threat.” Recently, Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Disease Research, said on Good Morning America” that an avian-flu pandemic was not only possible but expected. “We had 10 of them [pandemics] in the last 300 years, and we’re due for another one sometime soon.”

This uncomfortable thought, combined with the problems with the flu vaccine and distribution last year should be enough warning for anyone. Finally this week, Congress seemed to have gotten the message, at least temporarily. After a meeting with Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt, the Senate approved $3.9 billion for flu preparation in a military spending bill, and will consider whether to create a position of flu-pandemic coordinator. These actions reflect the warnings of various oversight agencies and the Government Accountability Office.

On the positive side the Government Accountability Office earlier this year found encouraging signs of U.S. initiatives for dealing with infectious disease and international cooperation to improve flu surveillance in Asia. But it also noted some substantial problems, including the production and distribution of vaccine and whether procedural issues have been worked out to control the spread of disease, including across national borders. Dr. Osterholm added last week that the avian flu conditions in Southeast Asia offered an excellent possibility for the virus to mutate into a human-to-human transmitted agent, which could spread overnight through air travel through much of the world.

As with Katrina, all warnings for avian flu have been made clearly and well in advance. The government is acutely aware of the problem and has at least some planning in place, though they remain unfinished. But as with Katrina, should this virus spread quickly, much of the public wouldn’t have the slightest idea where to turn.

If Congress wants to make a lasting improvement in the nation’s ability to reduce the effects of this pandemic, it will ensure the public becomes much better informed about what to do – and what or what not to fear – than it currently is. It’s not as if the nation hasn’t been warned.