Stats say Cardinals should win

Balance. That is the secret of life and so, too, in baseball. Every year at playoff time we hear about the pitching, and rightly so. However, the cry of every pitcher still rings loud and true: “Get some runs!”

Let’s take a look at the balance issue for the eight teams remaining. Here’s how they ranked in their respective leagues in pitching and hitting.

ERA Runs

Boston 11th 1st

New York 8th 2nd

Chicago 2nd 9th

L.A. Angels 3rd 7th

St. Louis 1st 2nd

Atlanta 5th 4th

San Diego 8th 13th

Houston 2nd 11th

What jumps out is that San Diego does not belong. They don’t. They are the National League wild card and from the game’s weakest division. The Cardinals should finish this in three games, especially with the Padres’ No. 1 starter, Jake Peavy, injured.

The Red Sox problem is just what the numbers say. With Chicago having scored 19 runs in the first two games, that Red Sox pitching ranking is ringing true.

The Yankees and the Angels are the most balanced teams and that is the way the series is being played. If pitching wins out, the Angels have three of the top five starting ERAs in the American League in Jarret Washburn, John Lackey, and Bartolo Colon.

The Yankees, however, have the best closer in the game in Mariano Rivera. The Yankees also have the bats.

The Cards are the most balanced team in the majors. Atlanta is second in balance, but in playing Houston, they go up against a team that tries to tip the scales with extraordinary pitching.

Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt were in the top six in ERA in the league. Brad Lidge was third in saves. Houston’s 10 runs in Game 1 of the series was an anomaly at just the right time for the Astros.

If balance holds true, and each game in a short playoff does not necessarily hold to the season averages, Chicago beats Boston, the Yankees and Angels are a tossup with the edge to the Angels, and the Cards and Atlanta win.

That would bring us to the Cards over Atlanta and Angels over Chicago.

The Cardinals would have the edge over the Angels in the World Series and gain some respite from the beating they took from Boston last year.

The intriguing questions are: Can the Yankee bats overcome the Angel pitching advantage and can the Houston starters shut down the Braves?

That’s why we play ’em.

Old Town native Gary Thorne is an ESPN and ABC sportscaster.