AUGUSTA – State veterinarian Don Hoenig wouldn’t hazard a guess Tuesday about when avian flu H5N1 might arrive in Maine, but he admitted that “we have to assume it’s headed here.”

Although Maine has had cases of avian flu H5N2 in the past, it is the ability of this new strain to cross over and affect humans that has him concerned.

This form of flu has spread rapidly from Asia to Russia, Turkey and Greece, likely through migrating birds. The World Health Organization has set a pandemic alert level of three because of the risk to humans, and the European Union has banned all bird imports.

Avian flu H5N1 transmission to humans has been reported in China, Thailand and Vietnam.

Here in Maine, all poultry movements already are monitored through a permit system. “We know what is coming and going,” Hoenig said.

Hoenig saw firsthand the effects of H5N2, also known as the fowl plague, in Pennsylvania in the 1980s.

“It started out mild, and then, within six months, it had changed and was killing birds all over the place,” he said. “When I saw what that virus could do, how devastating it could be, well, it has been one of my nightmares for 20 years.

“Now, we’re talking about a different virus, H5N1, that can be passed on to people,” he said. The disease first was detected in the live bird markets of Hong Kong in 1999.

Maine plans to protect its 4.5 million layer poultry industry – the state is the largest source of brown eggs in the country – but should the disease strike and eradication of all flocks become necessary, Hoenig doubted that the egg industry could rebound.

If H5N1 is found anywhere in the U.S., that area would be quarantined, Hoenig said. Should it make it to Maine, the state’s Animal Response Team would be activated and all birds destroyed.

“We will look to the federal quarantine of Pennsylvania in the 1980s as a model,” Hoenig said. Public health officials would be key players in the process.

The good news, he said, is that most migratory birds already are heading out of or passing over Maine.

The bad news, however, is that the H5N1 virus thrives in cold and wet conditions.