Gay rights backed in poll Support lags for law’s repeal

BANGOR – Voters would uphold the state’s gay rights law if the Nov. 8 election were held today, according to a new poll released Monday.

The Survey USA poll, conducted for WCSH 6 Portland, WLBZ 2 Bangor, and the Bangor Daily News, found that 56 percent of those surveyed would reject the “people’s veto” referendum to overturn the new law, which extends the state’s anti-discrimination law to gays and lesbians.

Forty-two percent of the 607 likely voters surveyed would support the repeal and 2 percent were undecided.

The poll appeared to hold good news for those seeking to keep the anti-discrimination law on the books. But supporters were cautious in interpreting the results after being burned by polls showing similar support for past gay rights initiatives that ultimately failed at the voting booth.

“No matter what any poll says, we need every vote to make this successful this November,” said Jesse Connolly of Maine Won’t Discriminate, a group working to uphold the law. “We need every supporter to consider voting early and volunteering and talking to friends and neighbors about how this is the most important election they have faced in several years.”

Question 1 on the Nov. 8 ballot will read: “Do you want to reject the new law that would protect people from discrimination in employment, housing, education, public accommodations and credit based on their sexual orientation?”

A yes vote would repeal the new law. A no vote would keep it on the books.

The Survey USA poll was conducted Oct. 21 to Oct. 23. It has a 4 percent margin of error.

According to the poll, support for the new law was strongest among women, 64 percent of whom opposed a repeal. Among the men surveyed, 47 percent opposed a repeal.

Support for the law was also strongest among those in southern Maine, where 62 percent favored keeping the new law compared to 48 percent in northern Maine.

Opponents of the law found their strongest support among voters who identified themselves as Republicans and conservatives.

Maine voters have been difficult to predict on the issue, and there has been a historical disconnect between poll results and the ballot box.

Mainers have considered the issue in various forms three times in the past 10 years. Most recently, in 1998 and 2000, they have rejected attempts to add sexual orientation to the list of protected classes in the Maine Human Rights Act, which already prohibits discrimination based on race, color, sex, disability, religion, ancestry and national origin.

In the days leading up to those elections, however, public opinion polls showed strong support for the gay rights initiatives. Two weeks before the February 1998 election, 62 percent of those surveyed said they would reject a repeal of the state’s gay rights law. At the voting booth, 51 percent voted to repeal it.

In 2000, 56 percent of those surveyed said they supported the gay rights law. Two weeks later, voters narrowly rejected it.

Paul Madore of the Maine Grassroots Coalition, a group working to repeal the law, said Monday he was encouraged by the level of support for his position in the latest Survey USA poll.

“Where we stand right now, we’re in a good position,” Madore said while en route to a meeting with volunteers in Waldo County. “It’s always been a ground war.”

Patrick Murphy, who heads the Portland-based polling firm Strategic Marketing Services, said Thursday that he believed the polls – despite their inability to predict the election results – accurately portray public sentiment on the issue.

Voter turnout, he said, has been the deciding factor in past elections and likely will be again.

“[Gay rights opponents] have done a phenomenal job getting out every possible vote,” said Murphy, whose firm is conducting polls on the issue. “The other side has not organized nearly as well, and I couldn’t honestly tell you whether they’ve done any better this time.”

The campaigns have been unusually quiet – at least in terms of media buys – with just two weeks before voters head to the polls.

Connolly said Monday his group would release its first television advertisement today. He said it would “showcase the need for the law, the absence of which has hurt real Maine people.”