Bangor still alive for playoff berth Orono, Rockland, Bucks seeking spots

Determining the final playoff teams in the Pine Tree Conference Class A and LTC Class C ranks during the final weekend of regular-season play will be an exercise in mud and mathematics.

Ideally, the mud bowls played on the field will determine which teams continue playing into November. If not, break out the calculators. Mt. Blue of Farmington and Oxford Hills of South Paris have clinched PTC A playoff berths, but five other teams – Lawrence of Fairfield, Lewiston, Skowhegan, Bangor and Messalonskee of Oakland – are still in contention for two other spots.

Mattanawcook Academy of Lincoln and Foxcroft Academy are playoff bound in the LTC while Orono, Rockland and Bucksport are alive for the final two playoff berths.

In Class A, Bangor (4-3) heads to South Paris on Saturday still mathematically alive for the playoffs despite a two-game losing streak. But in order to secure a postseason berth, the Rams need some help and need to defeat an Oxford Hills team that has won five straight since opening the season with back-to-back losses to Mt. Blue and Skowhegan.

“We need a lot of things to happen, but we have to win our game,” said Bangor coach Mark Hackett. “We’re practicing this week to win the game. We’re not mathematically eliminated, but we’ve got about a one in 10 chance.”

Bangor actually hasn’t won since Sept. 30, with its losses to Lawrence on Oct. 7 and to Mt. Blue last Friday night separated by a bye week. Oxford Hills is coming off a 49-27 victory at Mount Ararat of Topsham last weekend. Coach Bob Austin’s Vikings feature veteran offensive leadership in senior quarterback Ben Ryerson and senior running back Jimmy Bower, who rushed for 208 yards on 16 carries against Mount Ararat.

Other PTC A games have 5-2 Skowhegan at 7-0 Mt. Blue and 5-2 Lawrence at 4-3 Messalonskee on Friday night and 4-3 Lewiston at 2-5 Edward Little of Auburn and 2-5 Brunswick at 1-6 Mount Ararat on Saturday.

According to the Crabtree point index used to rank teams, for Bangor to qualify it needs to defeat Oxford Hills while Edward Little and Messalonskee both win. In addition, Mt. Blue and Mount Ararat would have both to win their games, or Skowhegan and Brunswick would both have to win those matchups.

In Class C, four games could come into play to determine the final two LTC playoff teams – two of the games involving Western Maine Class C clubs. That’s because the Crabtree point index involves adding a team’s winning percentage to the winning percentage of its opponents, and each LTC team played one Western C team in a crossover game this season to fill out a nine-game schedule.

Those pivotal games are 5-3 Boothbay at 5-3 Old Orchard Beach, 4-4 Livermore Falls at 6-2 Jay, 2-6 John Bapst of Bangor at 5-3 Orono and 4-4 Bucksport at 5-3 Rockland.

The simple part of this equation is that in the cases of Orono, Bucksport and Rockland, a win puts them in the playoffs.

“If we win, we’re 6-3 and we’re in and we don’t have to rely on a computer program,” said Rockland coach Daryle Weiss.

Rockland hasn’t made the playoffs since 1979.

But there are plenty of scenarios that could determine how the surviving teams would be seeded, according to LTC statistician Mike Archer, athletic director of Orono High School.

If Orono and Bucksport both win, Orono is the third seed while Bucksport is fourth.

If Orono and Rockland both win, those teams qualify but the seedings would be determined by the Boothbay-Old Orchard Beach result. If Boothbay wins that game, Orono would be the third seed because it played Boothbay, which in this case would finish with a better record than Old Orchard Beach, Rockland’s crossover foe.

If John Bapst and Bucksport win, Bucksport, Orono and Rockland all would finish 5-4. Bucksport would be the third seed if Jay – Bucksport’s crossover foe – beats Livermore Falls, and the winner of the Boothbay/Old Orchard Beach game would determine the No. 4 seed. If Boothbay wins that game, Orono is in; if OOB wins, Rockland gets the nod.

If John Bapst and Rockland both win, Rockland would be the No. 3 seed at 6-3 and Orono would be No. 4 at 5-4.

If John Bapst and Bucksport both win, and if Livermore Falls and OOB both win, Bucksport would finish third by virtue of the overall Crabtree points being tied and Bucksport having beaten Rockland head-to-head, which is the second tiebreaker. Rockland would finish fourth because its crossover opponent (OOB) would have a better record than Orono’s crossover foe (Boothbay). This would happen even though Orono defeated Boothbay and Rockland lost to OOB during the season.

If John Bapst and Bucksport both win and Jay defeats Livermore Falls, Bucksport would finish third and the winner of the Boothbay/OOB game would determine the No. 4 seed. A Boothbay win would send Orono to the playoffs, while an OOB win would give Rockland a postseason berth.

Clear as mud?