Poll: Law, gay union not linked Discrimination issue splits voters

Most Mainers don’t believe the state’s new gay rights law will lead to same-sex marriage, as the law’s opponents contend, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The poll, conducted by Strategic Marketing Services of Portland, found that 62 percent of those surveyed believe the new law prohibiting discrimination against gays and lesbians would not result in same-sex unions, such as those allowed in Massachusetts.

About 24 percent said they did believe the law would lead to gay marriages and about 15 percent weren’t sure.

“The opponents of this certainly started out by saying this led to a slippery road to marriage,” said Patrick Murphy, whose firm conducted the poll. “Based on this, they haven’t convinced the electorate that this is the case.”

The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 26. It has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

The poll comes one week before Maine voters consider Question 1 on the Nov. 8 ballot to determine whether to repeal or let stand a new law prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation.

Question 1 will read: “Do you want to reject the new law that would protect people from discrimination in employment, housing, education, public accommodations and credit based on their sexual orientation?”

A yes vote will repeal the new law, which has been put on hold pending the referendum results. A no vote will allow the law to take effect.

The law’s opponents, which include the Christian Civic League of Maine, argue that, should the law take effect, it would pave the way for same-sex marriage, despite language in the new law stating it does not sanction such unions.

An activist court, opponents argue, nevertheless could use the new anti-discrimination law to extend other rights – including the right to marry – to gays and lesbians. They cite court decisions in Massachusetts and, in particular, Vermont as precedent, saying the latter state’s civil rights laws were cited in a court decision that led to civil unions for gay couples there.

A spokesman for the Christian Civic League could not be reached Tuesday. But Bob Emrich, a pastor of the Emmanuel Baptist Church in Plymouth and opponent of the new law, said Tuesday he was disappointed with the poll results.

“I would obviously like to see the numbers higher on the marriage question,” Emrich said. “But polls on this issue have not been very accurate, and I suspect it will be the same thing this time.”

Jesse Connolly, a spokesman for the pro-gay rights group Maine Won’t Discriminate, said, “I think that this shows that Maine people understand what this bill is truly about. It’s about discrimination that is real, and nothing else.”

But if the law’s opponents were having a hard time convincing the public of the imminence of same-sex marriage, the law’s supporters were nearly as unsuccessful in convincing Mainers of the presence of discrimination based on sexual orientation, according to the poll.

The survey showed Mainers split, with 43 percent believing there was very little or no discrimination against gays. Forty-four percent of those surveyed said there was a lot or some discrimination.

In general, the poll found support for Question 1, with 58 percent of likely voters saying they planned to vote no or were leaning that way. About 28 percent said they would vote yes in favor of rejecting the law or were leaning that way, while 14 percent said they were undecided.

In a separate poll by Critical Insights, 62 percent of the respondents said they would vote against repealing the law, while 29 percent said they would vote for rejecting the law. Nine percent were undecided.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.