AUGUSTA – According to a new statewide poll released Thursday, only 38 percent of those surveyed thought Gov. John E. Baldacci should be re-elected to a second term in 2006. Even more surprising was the poll’s conclusion that opposition to Baldacci’s re-election ran highest in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District – a region the Democrat previously represented as a member of Congress.

“It’s certainly not a good number right now,” observed Amy Fried, a political science professor at the University of Maine.

The poll taken by Critical Insights of Portland was conducted between Oct. 21 and Oct. 29 and surveyed 601 Mainers across the state through telephone interviews. The poll carried a 3.4 percent margin of error, according to the firm’s chief executive, MaryEllen FitzGerald.

While 45 percent of those surveyed disapproved of Baldacci’s job performance, 46 percent said they approved of the administration’s policies, up 3 percentage points from the poll Critical Insights took last spring. When the question of whether Mainers should keep Baldacci at the helm for four more years was asked, however, support dropped off.

Statewide, 38 percent said the governor should be re-elected while 45 percent said Baldacci should not be re-elected. Sixteen percent of those surveyed were undecided, and 1 percent refused to answer the question. In southern Maine’s 1st District, 39 percent of those surveyed thought Baldacci should be re-elected while 44 percent said he should not. Sixteen percent were undecided, and 1 percent refused to answer.

In northern Maine’s 2nd District, 37 percent of those surveyed thought Baldacci should be re-elected while 46 percent said he should not. Seventeen percent were undecided.

FitzGerald said Baldacci’s numbers apparently “received no bounce” from the better-than-expected recommendations of the Base Realignment and Closure commission this fall that left most of the state’s military bases intact. Seventy-seven percent said the governor’s activities to save jobs associated with the Department of Defense operations had no bearing on their opinion of the governor. Twelve percent said their opinions of Baldacci had improved because of his handling of the base closures, and 9 percent said their opinions had worsened. Two percent were undecided.

Baldacci’s favorability ratings, down from 53 percent according to a Strategic Marketing Services poll in July, but way up from a September poll taken by SurveyUSA that placed Baldacci’s unfavorability at 56 percent, were not surprising to FitzGerald. The 45 percent who thought the governor did not deserve to be re-elected, however, was an eye-opener.

“That’s lower than I thought it would be, and it’s lower than what I had expected when considering a possible bounce from the BRAC hearings,” she said. “It was also interesting that his numbers were pretty consistent between the two congressional districts. I’ve always thought of him as being the favorite son from the 2nd Congressional District. It’s hard to explain.”

Fried said it seemed odd that Baldacci’s re-election numbers lagged so much behind his job approval ratings. It was conceivable, she said, that with voters in the 2nd District generally perceived as more conservative than those in the 1st District, Baldacci may experience some backlash from his determination to preserve the gay rights law passed this year by the Legislature. The law is up for repeal next week and appears as Question 1 on the ballot.

FitzGerald said it was possible the governor may not be succeeding in his efforts to convince voters of the merits of his Dirigo health insurance initiative. Other actions taken by the governor also may be viewed dimly by northern Maine residents, including Baldacci’s initial opposition to slot machines in Bangor, continued opposition to a casino or racino in Washington County, his decision to lease out the state’s retail liquor operations, dismantling of the state’s Liquor Enforcement Division, and his phased-in response to a referendum vote mandating that the state pay 55 percent of local education costs.

“There’s a whole series of things [that could come into play], Question 1, the racino, even local things like the Old Town dump,” Fried said. “And the economy is typically better in the Portland area, and there have been problems with the economy up here.”

Lee Umphrey, the governor’s spokesman, said the methodology behind the Critical Insights poll could be “called into question” and that the governor had taken on hard tasks over the last three years.

“I don’t think it’s reflective of anything more than we’re going through tough national times,” Umphrey said. “We’re in Iraq, gas prices are going crazy, there’s an oil heating crunch, and there’s great uncertainty. It would be reflected in any poll taken by anybody.”