Campaign funds sink, but Michaud upbeat about ’06

WASHINGTON – U.S. Rep. Michael Michaud of the 2nd District doesn’t seem to have many worries about his bid for re-election next year, to judge by his latest campaign finance report to the Federal Election Commission.

The Democrat raised only $62,000 in the last quarter, according to his filing with the commission.

“For an incumbent in a swing district [that] is not that much money,” said Jonathan Coll, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which provides financial assistance to Republican candidates for the U.S. House.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan, nonprofit group that compiles campaign spending figures on its Web site, opensecrets.org, Michaud has raised $228,890 so far in the 2006 election cycle, which is about $200,000 less than what he raised during the same period in the 2004 election cycle, according to the Federal Election Commission.

“I suspect Michaud’s fundraising is a function of the fact that he’s unlikely to have a major Republican challenge at this time,” said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington political analyst. No one has formally challenged Michaud yet.

“This is an off year and the congressman’s really been focused on congressional duties so we haven’t really ramped up the fundraising for ’06,” said Monica Castellanos, spokeswoman for the congressman. Castellanos said Michaud has been concentrating his time on the transportation bill, and trade and veteran’s issues.

At this point, only “divine intervention” would unseat Michaud, said Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Report, which analyzes American politics and elections. “It would kind of be like the parting of the Red Sea.”

Michaud, who is culturally conservative on issues of abortion and guns but more of a traditional Democrat on economic issues, has drawn support from moderate and conservative Democrats, along with some Republicans.

Even the “more progressive Democrats are not going to desert him,” said Sandy Maisel, director of the Goldfarb Center for Public Affairs and Civic Engagement at Colby College in Waterville.

When asked what it might take to beat Michaud, Maisel speculated that the incumbent might be vulnerable to a Republican challenger who is moderate enough to appeal to Democratic voters.

According to Coll of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Michaud’s biggest vulnerability is that he voted against the energy bill.

But a Republican challenger would also need to be able to raise big money, Rothenberg said.

Michaud, who has spent only $93,266 on his 2006 campaign so far, was first elected to the House in 2002 in a race for the open seat vacated by John Baldacci, now Maine’s Democratic governor. Michaud raised more than $1 million for that campaign, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, and narrowly won the race, 52-48 percent, over Kevin Raye, who was Sen. Olympia Snowe’s chief of staff.

Because that race was highly competitive, the National Republican Congressional Committee supported Raye financially, but two years later, the committee gave no money to Republican challenger Brian Hamel. “That was not a high-priority Republican race,” Rothenberg said.

Michaud had an easier time winning last year, with 58 percent of the vote, against Hamel, a former business executive. Hamel raised $667,602 compared to Michaud’s $1.3 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

“Hamel was a good candidate,” Rothenberg said. “But that’s not enough to defeat an entrenched incumbent who seems to fit the district pretty well.” Hamel told the Bangor Daily News that he has no plans to run again in 2006.

The National Republican Congressional Committee would not comment about whether it will contribute to a Republican challenger to Michaud next year, Coll said, but according to political experts, they are not likely to.

Over the years, Republicans have become more interested in defending incumbents’ seats than in launching attacks on entrenched Democrats, Maisel said. “They don’t want to put their efforts in districts where they’re going to win by a large amount or lose by a large amount. It’s a waste of money,” Maisel said.

“It’s a much worse environment for the Republicans now than it was two years ago with the war, gas prices, the president’s response to Katrina, questions about Republican ethics,” Rothenberg said. “My guess is that [Michaud] doesn’t feel threatened.”