CANADA’S CAMPAIGN SEASON

With reports of the demise of the current Canadian government, it would be easy to assume our northern neighbor may be in for some big changes. That could happen. But it is more likely that after new parliamentary elections next month, Prime Minister Paul Martin and his Liberal Party will remain in power.

So why all the fuss? Because the three opposition parties, especially the Conservative Party, thought they could benefit from an election. They may gain some seats in Parliament, but the Conservative Party, led by Stephen Harper, are not likely to gain enough to take control.

If the Conservative Party did take control they would likely have a hard time working with the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois, which wouldn’t look favorably on Mr. Harper’s social conservatism and calls to trim social welfare programs, says University of Maine Canadian Studies Professor Howard Cody. Mr. Harper’s pro-American stance also does not sit well with many Canadians who are strongly opposed to President Bush, he adds.

Since neither Mr. Harper nor Mr. Martin is particularly personable, the public will likely lean toward the leader they already know, Mr. Martin. Polls in most provinces show the Liberal Party with about a six-percentage point lead over the Conservatives.

Although the no-confidence vote was spurred by a federal inquiry that found the Liberal Party benefited from a kickback scheme and misspending millions of public dollars targeted for a unity program in Quebec, Prime Minister Martin was exonerated by the inquiry.

So, Mr. Harper’s charges that he is corrupt may not stick and may get tiresome to voters. Mr. Martin also has the benefit of presiding over good economic times in Canada. Unemployment is at a 30-year low and Canada is the only G-8 country to have a budget surplus. Mr. Martin is likely to promise tax cuts if he is re-elected.

With the election on Jan. 23, this is the first campaign during the holiday season in 26 years. Voters, busy with Christmas preparations, likely won’t pay attention to the candidates until early January. No bombshells are likely to be dropped until then.

No matter who wins, expect another election fairly soon. That, in turn, means no big ideas or initiatives since the prime minister will have to keep the voters and the opposition happy all the time, says Professor Cody.

Despite the temporary political upheaval in Canada, much is not likely to change in terms of relations with the United States.