When Latin Patriarch of the Holy Land Michel Sabbah celebrates Mass in the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem this Christmas Eve, events in the “little town” may have gone full circle from where they were 20 years ago.

On Christmas Eve 1984, Bethlehem enjoyed a relatively peaceful Christmas. Manger Square was crisscrossed with lights and a banner welcoming the choir of Brewton-Parker College. That Dublin, Ga., institution gave an open-air concert before thousands of Christian pilgrims packed in front of the Church of the Nativity. The major problem the Israeli army faced that night was a distraught American tourist who could not locate her car in the vehicle-clogged streets of Bethlehem.

Christmas of 2000 was another banner year for Bethlehem tourism. Upward of 50,000 pilgrims thronged the little town on each day of the Roman Catholic Christmas as well as on the Greek and Armenian Orthodox Christmases several weeks later.

In 2001, Christmas became a casualty of Israeli-Palestinian violence. Israel forbade Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, a Muslim, from transiting from his compound in Ramallah to be present at the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem on Christmas Eve. Israel feared that Arafat’s presence might further ignite Israeli-Palestinian tensions. Tourists got the message. A mere handful of stalwarts huddled in Manger Square, as happened again in 2002.

In 2003 the Bethlehem Hotel, accommodating mainly journalists and Palestinian Authority officials, reached 50 percent capacity on Dec. 24, something of a Christmas miracle. Jerusalem’s orthodox Jewish mayor tried to lighten spirits a bit by arranging for free distribution of Christmas trees at Jaffa Gate.

While “peace on earth,” not to mention Christmas cheer, seem to have eluded Bethlehem since 2001, one should bear in mind the broader contours of events in the Middle East. Despite sporadic Israeli-Palestinian violence, there remain signs that peace in the Middle East may yet be in the cards.

Israel and overwhelmingly Muslim Turkey continue to enjoy the full diplomatic relations they have had since 1949. Military ties have flourished. More than 300,000 Israeli tourists visited the Turkish resort of Antalya in 2003.

Israel and Syria enjoy a frontier which has been casualty-free since l973. Indeed, the Henry Kissinger-brokered Israeli-Syrian Disengagement Agreement of l974 may have set an all-time record for peace between two former Middle Eastern adversaries. It certainly has outlasted numerous peace agreements between Arab states.

Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty 10 years ago and have quietly settled a long-simmering frontier dispute over an area informally renamed “Peace Island.” El Al Israel Air Lines services the Jordanian capital of Amman. Jordanian airliners, unlike those of any other Arab country, have access to Israeli air space. Negotiations are under way to regularly export Israeli Dead Sea minerals to East Asia via the Jordanian port of Aqaba and Jordanian products to Europe via Israel’s Mediterranean ports, thereby freeing Israel’s port of Elat for expansion of tourist hotels.

Israel has enjoyed only a cold peace with Egypt since President Anwar Sadat’s courageous visit to Jerusalem 28 years ago. Nevertheless, the current Israeli-Egyptian relationship is infinitely superior to the incessant warfare that characterized the 30 years prior to Sadat’s visit. An example of that cold but peaceful relationship is the reversion of the Taba beach resort to Egyptian sovereignty after decades of agonizing negotiations culminating in a case before the International Court of Justice in the Hague.

And what of the Palestinians? The first state to recognize Palestinian independence was Israel. It did so at the moment of its birth 57 years ago only to have the viability of such a solution shattered by Arab states which attacked a fledgling Israel and confiscated the territories the United Nations had set aside for the Palestinians, namely the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Since the Madrid Peace Conference of 1991 Israel has granted infinitely more autonomy to the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza Strip than they ever enjoyed under Jordan or Egypt, which held those territories from 1948 to l967.

Under the most recent accords negotiated by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Israel has completed its withdrawal from Gaza, terrorist attacks against Israelis have diminished, and West Bank and Gaza Palestinians have just completed local elections under the supervision of democratically elected President Muhammad Abbas. The Palestinian president will almost surely make an appearance in the Nativity Church this Christmas Eve.

From all indications, inclement weather may deter crowds, but not the traditional fears of war and terrorism. This Christmas in Bethlehem promises to be a return to the festive Christmases of years past, a hopeful sign in a region fraught with tension.

Jonathan Goldstein, a University of West Georgia history professor, is on sabbatical in Jerusalem. He has visited Bethlehem on many Christmases since 1984. He is a summer resident of Glenburn.