AUGUSTA – Soothsayers trying to foretell the political dynamics of the upcoming legislative session would be well-advised to look back on a similar situation a decade ago.

Back then, the partisan lineup within the House of Representatives underwent a series of changes, concluding when a Democratic member switched to independent as soon as the 1996 session began.

The move by Belinda Gerry of Auburn left the two parties with 75 seats each.

The numerical standoff sparked talk of gridlock, but it didn’t turn out that way.

Speaker Dan Gwadosky reluctantly bowed to pressure from the Republicans and awarded them the House chairmanships on eight of the 17 committees even though the GOP, which controlled the Senate 18-16-1, maintained its hold on all the Senate chairs.

The narrow margins offered all the makings for political warfare. Yet that election year session produced what were viewed as major initiatives at the time – an extension of Medicaid coverage for welfare mothers seeking to join the work force, a $20 million repeal of the gross-receipts tax on nursing homes – with what participants said was remarkably little partisan rancor.

“A lot of it was bipartisan, and that’s OK with me,” Gwadosky said at the time.

“I would call it civil,” said Gary Reed, a Falmouth Republican then in the House.

That was then – with independent Gov. Angus King still feeling his way along at midterm and neither party able to claim command of the Legislature.

This is now, with sitting Gov. John Baldacci heading into a re-election campaign as a member of a Democratic Party that tenuously holds both House and Senate leadership.

In the House, however, the similarity to 1996 is striking.

Two former Democrats – Reps. Thomas Saviello of Wilton and Joanne Twomey of Biddeford – have switched their status to independent since the 2005 session ended, reducing the Democratic edge over Republicans in the House to 74-73, with one Green party member and three unenrolled or independent members.

The Senate remains under the control of Democrats, 19-16 over Republicans.

Speaker John Richardson, D-Brunswick, says he doesn’t plan to adjust current committee assignments for House members and echoes others in suggesting that the House has already settled in with an awareness that majorities can be delicate to build and maintain.

“Even though there have been a couple of changes in party registration, I don’t see the dynamics as any different from the last session,” he says.

Looking toward the new session, the speaker says partisanship is a standard part of the legislative equation.

“Is it going to be politically charged? Perhaps it will be from time to time, but it doesn’t have to be,” Richardson says.

Richardson and Senate Minority Leader Paul Davis, R-Sangerville, agree that the session probably will open on a bipartisan note with lawmakers voting to ratify a leadership agreement joined by the governor to appropriate $5 million for heating assistance for the needy.

Beyond that, says Davis, it’s another election year, with the Blaine House and the Legislature up for grabs. Plenty of room for partisanship and that’s no big deal, he says.

“Well, you always have that,” he says. “You have it when the seat’s open. You have it when the governor’s running for re-election. You have it in the House and Senate every time.”

What could serve to defuse extreme partisanship within the Legislature is the shared tactic of State House Democrats and Republicans to outsource the job of voicing the most inflammatory rhetoric to the political party organizations headquartered nearby.

With the party messages echoed and amplified by sharp-tongued outside groups, Maine becomes increasingly subject to “techniques of national politics,” says former Democratic House Speaker Michael Saxl.

“It’s more Maine catching up with the rest of the country, and it’s too bad, frankly,” Saxl says.

Former House Republican leader James Donnelly looks at the close numbers in the Legislature and, recalling the experience of a decade ago, says they are more likely to foster cooperation than to fuel discord.

“You have to work together when the numbers are close because nobody has the majority,” he says.

Leadership style can also make a difference, he says, casting Gwadosky, with a “gifted sense of humor,” and GOP floor chief Walter Whitcomb, “a real pragmatist,” as well-suited for the tense times of the mid-1990s.

Heading into the New Year, members of both House caucuses were wondering whether another shoe was about to drop.

Democratic Rep. Barbara Merrill of Appleton, the author of “Setting the Maine Course” in which she inveighs against political orthodoxies, acknowledged Friday she was considering a change in political affiliation.

“Obviously, I’m not satisfied with the amount of partisanship we’re seeing in the Legislature,” she said.