IRAN’S NUCLEAR DANGER

There are few good options for halting Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. Sanctions that are acceptable to the country’s trading partners, such as Russia and China, are not likely to be effective in punishing Iran’s regime into abandoning its nuclear ambitions. Military intervention is out of the question. That leaves diplomacy.

The current situation of western countries, led by the United States, trying to pressure Iran to halt what is believed to be the development of nuclear weapons technology – Iranian officials say they are developing nuclear power capability – is not likely to be successful, argues Bahman Baktiari, a political science professor at the University of Maine. It won’t work because there has long been growing nationalist sentiment in Iran, culminating in last year’s election of extremist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. Images of western countries bullying Iran – which is how efforts to have the United Nation’s censure or sanction Iran are portrayed there – strengthen Mr. Ahmadinejad’s support among the country’s millions of lower-class citizens.

To avoid this scenario, Professor Baktiari suggests a regional diplomatic approach. Iran is much more likely to respond to pressure from nearby countries. Part of this regional approach must be to convince the Iranian public how dangerous a nuclear-armed Iran would be to the Middle East and parts of Asia. If Iranian citizens are convinced of this danger, it will highlight the recklessness of the Ahmadinejad regime.

This is akin to the approach the United States has taken with North Korea. Although the process is slow and full of bluster and bravado, North Korea has not abandoned the talks, which include its neighbors China and Japan.

The one drawback to this approach is that participating countries, such as Pakistan and India, have to be honest about their nuclear capabilities. In Tehran’s eyes, it is not fair for these countries – and Israel – to have nuclear technology when the international community says Iran cannot.

While beginning regional negotiations, the United States and the European Union should continue to devise ways to punish Iran without using sanctions, which would likely hurt the people while strengthening the regime, Professor Baktiari adds. These could include prohibiting Iran’s access to nuclear technology and information and restricting the travel of Iranian officials. It could also include prohibitions against Iranian membership in international organizations such as the World Bank and World Trade Organization. The United States should also continue its efforts to convince U.N. Security Council members Russia and China to take action against Iran.

A nuclear-armed country led by a reckless leader who preaches hate and religious extremism is not an option. That’s why multiple avenues need to be pursued to force Iran to change its course.