CANADA LEANS RIGHT

It would be easy to read too much into Canada’s national elections in which the Conservative Party toppled the Liberals, who had long held the prime minister’s post. It appears many Canadians supported Conservative candidates to get rid of the scandal-plagued government of Paul Martin, not necessarily because they believed in the Conservative message of smaller government and lower taxes.

In the short term, there are not likely to be major changes. The Conservative Party did not win enough seats in Parliament to rule on its own. Unlike the Liberals, who governed with the help of the New Democrats, the Conservatives have no natural allies in the four-party Parliament and will need the support of political rivals to pass legislation.

Further, Mr. Harper must keep his newfound supporters happy, which could dampen efforts at social policy change – outlawing gay marriage, for example. He will also find it difficult to fund all the programs he promised during the campaign while also fulfilling his pledge to cut taxes.

Election returns show the Conservatives captured 124 seats. This is significantly more than the 98 seats they hold in the current Parliament but far from a 155-seat majority. The Liberals fell to 103 seats from 133. The Bloc Quebecois lost two seats, for a total of 51 and the National Democratic Party, which has championed social liberalism, added 11 seats to its current bloc of 18.

Minority governments tend not to last long in Canada. The outgoing minority Liberal government stayed in power for 17 months before it was defeated in November 2005 over a scandal involving payments to Quebec groups to damped secessionist fervor. Former Prime Minister Martin was not implicated in the scandal but could not shake voter sentiment that his party was corrupt.

Mr. Harper’s election also shifts the geographic balance of power. Recent prime ministers have been from Quebec. Mr. Harper, an economist, is from Alberta, an oil-rich province in the west. Western provinces favor cutbacks in federal payments to poorer provinces, such as the Maritimes, something Mr. Harper said he would like to revise.

Mr. Harper is also pro-American, supporting the U.S. missile shield project and alternative approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions other than the Kyoto accord. These sentiments will make for a closer working relationship with President Bush.

Given political realities, Mr. Harper is likely to stick to the middle ground for now. The question of whether Canada is becoming more conservative will be answered in the next election.