November 14, 2024
Column

Sound and fury, signifying plenty

Tepid neither inspires nor even entertains, so it is unfair to expect a politician to describe anything at less than full boil. But over the next several months, when Gov. John Baldacci makes Maine out to be Paradise, only with better weather, and his many opponents wail that our ring of Hell has the highest tax burden in the inferno, keep in mind that behind the noise are some really good issues.

Take that tax burden, for which the governor is hammered weekly. Over the last quarter century, Maine has never been below seventh in the Tax Foundation’s state-and-local ranking; the state’s average place over that time was between third and fourth. It has been first since 1997. My point is that Maine has had a lousy ranking for a long time, through multiple administrations, usually riding more on the region’s economy than any state policy. But a recent State Planning Office report says that the tax burden is starting to fall because of limits on government spending.

Setting those limits was a bipartisan project, and while the drop in tax burden won’t change your life, it was a sign, as fragile as the first crocus of spring, that this long-standing problem might be solvable.

Maine’s tax burden, however, is mere background noise for the gubernatorial race, where prolonged shouting will occur, for instance, over health care, which means Dirigo, Baldacci’s health care reform. Actually, the fight will be over just the health insurance part of Dirigo, called DirigoChoice. And mostly the funding mechanism for DirigoChoice, called the savings offset payment.

That payment is worth $43.7 million in an $8 billion health care system, or about one-half of 1 percent of the total, but don’t tell supporters that it is anything less than revolutionary. At which point Republican opponents would agree, pointing to the Bolsheviks of 1917.

Much more important is the debate that Dirigo represents. Like a lot of states, Maine is creating a state health care system in the absence of the federal government ever acting. Whatever mistakes the state makes, and doing so is unavoidable in such a complicated field, they will be minuscule compared with the potential benefit of creating a system that covers everyone and no longer costs twice as much as the rest of the world’s. But the only way any program will survive long enough to grow into being effective is to have support from both parties, which is impossible given the current volume of debate, on display Tuesday at a legislative hearing on Dirigo.

Nor was it possible with all the noise to hear much of the debate Wednesday over the state’s job growth after the governor’s all-out response to Republican observations that the growth was, in fact, no growth at all but a loss. Republicans used the preliminary numbers the state’s economic-forecasting commission released in January, which showed a drop of 200 jobs in the non-farm payroll employment between 2004 and 2005.

Wrong! said Baldacci the next day, ticking off talking points at a press conference and issuing a press release to show where the GOP erred. The final numbers have arrived and they show 5,200 jobs gained in that measurement from 2002 to 2005.

What about during the dates the GOP mentioned? Oh, that. Well, that would be zero growth. Certainly nothing to cheer about even if the non-farm payroll measure is archaic, as the administration persuasively points out. Anyway, 5,200 new jobs over three years is a poor showing no matter how you dress it up.

Absent or meager job growth isn’t limited to Maine or this part of the country. But the state is now seeing signs of an economy in substantial transition, demanding skills and education that this state has little time to prepare for. A commitment to building those may be the most important issue of the next few years.

If the governor was over-defensive about the job numbers, there was a reason for it – Maine Republicans have learned how to get him going, both through a sharpened message and by improving their response to Democratic spin. Meanwhile, Baldacci has … let’s look for a kind word here … struggled to develop a consistent and positive image as governor.

But that may be changing too. The governor’s new director of communications, Crystal Canney, has overcome her unfortunate experience of being a journalist for 20 years, at WABI in Bangor and WGME in Portland, and seems to be a natural in her current role.

Responding to the Republican sorrow over Maine’s sorry job numbers, she said, “Once again you see politics playing a big part as Republican leadership tries to paint a doom and gloom picture about the state of Maine. It’s too bad they can’t see what a great place this is to live and raise a family…” That’s a good response because it suggests myopia on the part of the opposition while setting up what will become a campaign theme for Baldacci.

Even skillful spinning has its limits, however. After discussing job growth, Canney said there was more good news. SurveyUSA, which concluded the governor’s approval rating was a dismal 36 percent in December, had rocketed him to 41 percent approval now.

No amount of noise can change that.

Todd Benoit is the editorial page editor of the Bangor Daily News.


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