Jobs by Numbers

A new poll by Strategic Marketing Services in Portland gives an old answer to what Mainers worry about most. “Jobs” was the top response when 401 Maine adults were asked earlier this month what they thought the most important issue was facing the state. One of the reasons for this answer may have been the perception, asked later in the poll, of whether Maine has had a net gain in jobs or a net loss over the past three years.

More than half of the respondents, 54 percent, thought Maine had suffered a net loss; only 18 percent thought Maine had gained jobs. The actual numbers from the state Department of Labor, however, look like this. From 2003 through 2005, nonfarm wage and salary jobs increased from 606,800 to 611,700, an increase of 4,900 jobs. Over that same time, total resident employment rose from 660,400 to 677,400, an increase of 17,000 jobs. The first set of numbers is the traditional measure of employment; the second set also captures those who are self-employed and those who work in Maine but receive a paycheck from firms that are out of state.

Whichever measure is used, jobs are up, not remarkably, but they’re up, and unemployment is stable. So why do so many people believe Maine is in worse shape than it is? Partly, because bad news is news. When a mill closes, the job losses are counted up even, as in the case of the G-P mill in Old Town, when it’s not clear whether the jobs will be lost or not.

Labor Commissioner Laura Fortman adds that the state doesn’t have a way to count the small additions – companies hiring two or four workers, which happens routinely so isn’t news, even to the state. “We collect data on unemployment but not on those getting jobs,” she said. The result is a general-public assumption that job losses are more prevalent than gains.

The poll further concluded that older residents and those with a high-school diploma or less were more likely to conclude that Maine was suffering from net job losses than those younger and with more formal education. That could suggest these groups perceive as happening what worries them most.

If so, the Labor Department numbers should reassure them, whether news or not.