Survey favors Gov. Baldacci 56% of voters support spending cap proposal

Both Gov. John Baldacci and a proposal to limit state and local spending would win favor among Maine voters if the November election were held today, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The survey, conducted by Portland-based Strategic Marketing Services, shows Baldacci, the incumbent Democrat, leading his three potential Republican rivals by 13 percent to 18 percent.

The real story, however, could be the effect of third-party and independent candidates on the race, according to political pundits and the pollster responsible for the new survey.

“I think [Baldacci] has a decent lead at this time, but it’s going to be an interesting race,” said pollster Patrick Murphy, whose survey is the first to account for three independents on the ballot.

Previous polls, including the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, limited the field to a less likely head-to-head matchup, and generally showed Baldacci trailing his potential GOP rivals.

Murphy’s survey of 401 likely Maine voters includes three potential scenarios in the November run for governor.

In one, voters favored Baldacci over state Sen. Peter Mills, R-Cornville, 33 percent to 20 percent. Independent candidate state Rep. Barbara Merrill of Appleton earned 4 percent. Green Independent Party candidate Pat LaMarche of Yarmouth earned 3 percent as did independent John Jenkins, a former Lewiston mayor.

In a second scenario, Baldacci earned 37 percent compared to 24 percent for former U.S. Rep. David Emery, a Republican from St. George, with support for Merrill, LaMarche and Jenkins similar to the first scenario.

In a third, Baldacci led state Sen. Chandler Woodcock, R-Farmington, 34 percent to 16 percent. Merrill took 6 percent, with Jenkins at 4 percent and LaMarche at 3 percent.

In all of the scenarios, more than one-third of voters were undecided – typical in this early stage of the election, Murphy said.

Pundits differ on whether Baldacci will benefit from more competition on the ballot.

Based on his numbers, Murphy said more might be merrier for Baldacci, who – if independents can combine for 20 percent of the vote – potentially could win the race with just over 40 percent.

“It wouldn’t take much for that to happen,” Murphy said.

Richard Powell, a University of Maine political scientist, said he didn’t put much value on early polls – particularly when the Republicans haven’t settled on a nominee. But, he said, the fact that Baldacci’s numbers don’t approach 50 percent should be of concern to the incumbent’s camp.

“It shows that a good number of voters are looking elsewhere,” he said.

The poll assumes Baldacci bests his lone primary challenger, Christopher Miller of Gray. There are also several other scenarios for the November election, for which eight independents have registered as candidates.

Besides the governor’s race, Murphy’s poll also explored how voters would receive the Taxpayer Bill of Rights referendum, a spending cap proposal slated for the 2006 ballot.

The survey found that, if the election were held today, 56 percent of voters would support the spending limits compared to 21 percent opposed. Twenty-three percent were unsure.

“We’re in the middle of a tax revolution, and this is evidence of that,” said Mary Adams, who led the effort to put the matter on the ballot.

Murphy, however, urged caution in analyzing the results, noting that another plan to reduce spending, Carol Palesky’s proposed property tax cap, had a similar level of support in the early stages of the 2004 election. It later was handily defeated at the polls.

Thirteen percent of those surveyed counted tax reform as the most important issue facing the state. The top two responses were jobs and employment (26 percent) and healthcare (15 percent.)

The poll, conducted between March 3 and March 8, has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

The survey also found:

. Sixty-eight percent of Maine voters would support a ban on cellular telephone use while driving.

. About one-half opposed extending Maine’s legislative term limits from eight years to 12 years.

. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed supported the Dirigo health plan, which was designed to increase access to health insurance. Twenty-two percent opposed the plan while 25 percent didn’t know.

. Seventy-two percent favored an annual minimum starting salary of $30,000 for teachers.