Poll shows Gov. Baldacci bouncing back GOP candidates trail incumbent in one-to-one election matchups

For the first time in months, Gov. John Baldacci’s approval ratings have topped 50 percent and the Bangor Democrat leads all of his potential GOP rivals in the race for governor, according to a poll released this week.

The Rasmussen Reports poll, which in February had the governor’s approvals at just 39 percent, now measures them at 55 percent. The survey also shows Baldacci breaking 40 percent in head-to-head matchups with each of his three Republican opponents.

“What it shows is that the governor is working for the people of Maine and the people are taking notice,” said Baldacci’s campaign manager, Jesse Connolly. “It’s always good to be trending in the right direction.”

The survey, released May 7, shows Baldacci leading both Republicans David Emery, a former congressman from St. George, and Peter Mills, a state senator from Cornville, 44 percent to 36 percent. Baldacci holds a slightly larger lead over state Sen. Chandler Woodcock of Farmington, 46 percent to 33 percent.

The survey of 500 Mainers has a 4.5 percent margin of error. It was conducted May 2.

While the numbers came as good news to what some considered a struggling Baldacci campaign, Republican leaders noted that roughly 20 percent of those surveyed were still undecided and Baldacci had yet to win 50 percent of the vote in any of the head-to-head contests.

“The governor is still showing surprising weakness for an incumbent,” Mark Ellis, chairman of the Maine Republican Party, said Wednesday.

Amy Fried, a political scientist at the University of Maine, said Baldacci’s gains in popularity could come from voters paying closer attention to the governor’s race in general.

“Elections are about making decisions,” Fried said. “It could be that people are starting to make comparisons, and maybe Baldacci looks a little better.”

Fried’s colleague at UM, Mark Brewer, said he didn’t put much stock in the poll’s hypothetical matchups.

First, he said, Republicans haven’t decided on a nominee yet, and voters in general don’t know much about the GOP’s three primary contenders.

Second, the poll doesn’t take into account third-party or independent candidates in the November race. Two such candidates, Pat LaMarche of the Maine Green Independent Party, and state Rep. Barbara Merrill, an independent, have already submitted enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot.

There are several other independent candidates seeking to qualify. They have until June 2 to do so.

While Brewer didn’t put much faith in the early head-to-head numbers, he did see the jump in Baldacci’s approval numbers as impressive. The political scientist speculated that part of the dramatic increase in Baldacci’s popularity comes from his party affiliation.

“He could be benefiting by not being in the same party as George W. Bush,” Brewer said, noting the president’s low approval numbers and those of Republicans in general, according to recent nationwide surveys.

But before Baldacci faces anyone in November, he must fend off a June primary challenge from fellow Democrat Christopher Miller of Gray. Baldacci is considered a heavy favorite in the race, but his campaign aides say they are taking Miller’s challenge seriously.

Brewer said that while the most recent Rasmussen numbers bode well for Baldacci, the Bangor Democrat must turn in a strong showing in that primary – by winning at least 70 percent of the vote – to erase any doubts about his strength going into the general election.

On the Net: www.rasmussenreports.com.