1 rout, 2 nail-biters Woodcock eyes GOP victory in primary

AUGUSTA – Early Wednesday morning, Republican gubernatorial candidate Chandler Woodcock continued to maintain a consistent 2,500-vote lead over challenger Peter Mills who refused to concede until all of the votes were counted.

“I have nowhere near enough information to make a decision about conceding,” Mills said shortly after midnight. “I need to pick up another 80 to 100 votes in at least 25 more precincts, and I think it can be done. This thing will be decided by about 700 votes either way, so we’re probably looking at a recount.”

With 82 percent of 634 Maine precincts unofficially tallied by the Bangor Daily News, Woodcock was outpacing Mills by about 4.5 percentage points. David Emery, who trailed both candidates throughout the evening, conceded the race shortly after 11 p.m.

Meanwhile, the Woodcock camp concluded that with an extremely light voter turnout of less than 25 percent, there was no way Mills could make up enough ground to catch their candidate.

“Chandler feels confident that his numbers will hold – we’ll wait,” said Dan Billings, speaking for Woodcock.

Sharing near unanimity on many issues, the candidates staged a GOP primary that never really caught fire among average Republicans. Still, for those who were engaged in the primary process, the race gave all three segments of the party something to cheer about.

With his “down-home” style, pro-life and anti-gay rights attitudes, Woodcock, 57, appealed to conservatives and was actually banking on a turnout of 25 percent or less. Political scientists have long held that in primaries with lower turnouts, the “wingers” in the party – those with the most strictly defined and less flexible policy positions – tend to participate at the polls in larger numbers than those with more moderate views.

Emery, a 57-year-old former Maine congressman, often referred to himself as the man “in the middle” of the three-way primary as he attempted to corral Maine GOP moderates whose political attitudes tend to reflect those held by more prominent politicians such as U.S. Sens. Olympia J. Snowe and Susan M. Collins.

Republicans slightly to the left of Emery thought they had the perfect candidate in Mills, 62. Sometimes referred to as a “liberal” by Woodcock and Emery supporters for his pro-gay rights, pro-choice stands and his opposition to the proposed Taxpayer Bill of Rights tax cap, Mills also claimed to be a Republican in the mold of Collins and Snowe. While many of the party’s hard-liners wanted a candidate like Woodcock who would provide a sharp contrast to Democratic Gov. John E. Baldacci, Mills argued he was the party’s best hope for winning back the Blaine House because of his presumed ability to attract independent and alienated Democratic voters.

“[Woodcock] tends to be more conservative than the other two,” said Bruce Johnson, who voted for the candidate at the Bangor Civic Center polling site Tuesday evening. Johnson said he wasn’t as concerned about whether Woodcock could defeat incumbent Baldacci. “We live in Maine, and you have to vote your heart. You have to vote your conscience.”

Also at the civic center, Doug and Nichi Farnham cast their ballots for Mills, citing his leadership qualities and accomplishments as a state senator.

“He seems to be the kind of candidate that people are looking for now,” Doug Farnham said.

“He might be able to get something done in Augusta,” Nichi Farnham added.

The most recent statewide poll taken over the weekend by SurveyUSA for WCSH 6 and WLBZ 2 was released Monday evening and reflected how tightly the race had narrowed. The survey asked 500 likely Republican primary voters which of the three gubernatorial candidates they preferred. Thirty-one percent of those polled said they would vote for Woodcock. Thirty percent said they would vote for Mills, and another 30 percent said they would vote for David Emery. Nine percent said they were undecided.

The poll, which carried a 4.5 percent margin of error, indicated Woodcock fared well with younger voters and Emery held the highest number of older voters. But when slightly more than 500 independents also were factored into the survey, the poll actually corroborated Mills’ claims of his popularity among independents and moderate Republicans. In fact, at 39 percent, Mills claimed more support from moderates than Woodcock’s 35 percent among respondents who identified themselves as conservatives.

In their approach to campaign spending, Mills and Woodcock chose public financing of their campaigns with each receiving $250,000 under the Maine Clean Elections Act. Emery chose to differentiate himself from his opponents by staging a privately funded campaign that he championed as not “burdensome” to Maine taxpayers.

The strategy appeared to have backfired after Emery encountered obstacles raising money. According to the last campaign finance report for the filing period April 26-June 1, Emery raised only $63,000 for the period, including a $15,000 loan to himself. His total contributions amounted to about $159,000 for the entire campaign, and he spent about $144,000. The majority of his expenses resulted from advertising, consulting, travel and polling costs.

Enjoying the advantages of their more generous taxpayer-financed campaigns, Mills and Woodcock spent almost all of their money on advertising, mailings, radio and television. Mills spent $2,152 on staff salaries while Woodcock paid $4,600 to his campaign manager.

Personally and professionally, the three candidates were studies in contrast though all are married with children. Woodcock of Farmington was a “boots-on-the-ground” Vietnam War veteran who graduated from the University of Maine at Farmington and retired from a teaching and high school coaching career before serving three terms in the Maine Senate.

Emery, of St. George, graduated from Worcester Polytechnic Institute, was a former state legislator in the 1970s, went on to serve two terms in Congress in the mid-1970s through the mid-1980s, and served as deputy director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency under President Reagan. He runs his own consulting business.

Mills, of Cornville, is a Harvard-educated lawyer who served as a naval intelligence officer during the Vietnam War. He has amassed a total of 12 years’ experience in the House and Senate and led a successful, bipartisan legislative revolt last year against a Democrat-backed plan to borrow $400 million to balance the state budget.