TUESDAY’S CHEERS

Should the cheers Tuesday for GOP gubernatorial challenger Chandler Woodcock from supporters of John Baldacci worry state Sen. Woodcock’s party? The Baldacci supporters were cheerful because Republicans chose their most conservative candidate to compete in a large field, and Democrats plausibly believed the choice most helped the governor.

With light participation in the primary, it would be a mistake to presume how a general election will turn out in November. But a few conclusions and one prediction might be drawn from the vote this week:

. Nearly 25 percent of core Democratic voters rejected Gov. Baldacci in the Democratic primary. This isn’t surprising given some of the tough choices faced by Maine government in the last few years nor is it fatal to the governor – he is a moderate who will draw votes from the many unenrolled in the general election. But look at some of the percentages for his challenger, political unknown Christopher Miller: Washington County, 45 percent; Somerset County, 34 percent; and in the governor’s home county of Penobscot, 24 percent.

. The governor did best in southern Maine and in the cities, as did Republican primary candidate, state Sen. Peter Mills, who finished second to Sen. Woodcock. Sen. Mills took Portland, Bangor, South Portland and tied with Sen. Woodcock in Augusta, losing to him in Lewiston. Sen. Woodcock was strong in rural areas, but he will need more than these to win in November. His job is to reassure city voters that he isn’t a scary conservative caricature.

. With five well-funded candidates on the ballot (plus at least two others with lesser funding and two write-in candidates), the wild card is somewhere near the political center. Rep. Barbara Merrill of Appleton is running as an independent and has qualified for Clean Election state funding (as have Green Pat LaMarche, Sen. Woodcock and, perhaps, former state Rep. John Michael). It’s not yet clear how well she will do, but Ms. Merrill is likely to do more harm to the governor than to Sen. Woodcock.

. Nationally, independents are moving toward Democrats when asked which party they preferred. They do not vote as reliably as Republicans but, if the trend is also true in Maine, they represent a potential pool of voters for the governor in a race where a plurality will likely win.

. A prediction: All the major candidates will have extensive white papers on jobs and the economy, health care and taxation, and voters should look them over carefully, but issues won’t drive the outcome of the election. Maine has some difficult years ahead, with perennial challenges of attracting young people and industry to rural areas added to tax and health care costs that are not sustainable. Voters will seek a candidate who can empathize with the problems these conditions create and deliver the bad news about what must be done in a way that inspires trust.

Political outlook will be joined in 2006 by an increased impatience with the chronic conditions that plague Maine. The lesson from this is perhaps a warning: Be careful for whom you cheer.