Poll favors Baldacci, tax referendum 24 percent back Woodcock; many voters still undecided

BANGOR – A poll released Monday shows incumbent Gov. John Baldacci and the proposed Taxpayer Bill of Rights winning favor among voters in these early days of the campaign.

Baldacci, a Bangor Democrat seeking a second term, won support from 42 percent of those surveyed in the July Strategic Marketing Services poll. Twenty-four percent said they would vote for – or were leaning toward – his Republican challenger, state Sen. Chandler Woodcock of Farmington.

Barbara Merrill, an Appleton independent, and Pat LaMarche of the Maine Green Independent Party placed a distant third and fourth in the survey, each with about 3 percent of respondents supporting them.

The three other independent candidates – John Michael of Auburn, David Jones of Falmouth and Phillip Morris NaPier of Windham – combined for less than 1 percent.

The telephone survey of 401 likely voters was conducted between July 14 and July 21. It has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

While Baldacci – far and away the best known among the candidates, according to the poll – appeared to hold a solid lead about three months before the election, the race for the Blaine House appeared anything but cut and dried with an unusually high percentage of undecided voters.

“There are a lot still in play,” SMS pollster Patrick Murphy said of the 27 percent of likely voters who had yet to make up their minds.

Amy Fried, a University of Maine political scientist, said Monday that Baldacci might be up, but his campaign should be concerned about his failure to attract more than 50 percent of the vote.

“It’s a red flag,” said Fried, adding that Woodcock’s camp should be equally concerned about his showing in the poll. “[Woodcock’s’] base of support should be bigger than that.”

The survey contained both good and bad news for Baldacci, whose popularity has ebbed and flowed in recent months. The most recent SMS poll showed Baldacci’s approval rating at 60 percent, up from 53 percent a year ago.

It appeared many voters had yet to make up their minds about the other candidates.

While 33 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Woodcock, 52 percent of those surveyed said they hadn’t formed an opinion or were not familiar with the GOP nominee.

Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed said they had no opinion of LaMarche or hadn’t heard of her, according to the survey. Merrill, who served one term in the Legislature before running for governor, also didn’t register strong feelings with many voters, with 77 percent of those surveyed having no opinion or unfamiliar with her.

Also on the November ballot will be a referendum question on whether to adopt a Taxpayer Bill of Rights. If approved, the measure will limit increases in state and local government spending to the rate of inflation plus population growth. And it would require voter approval of any tax and fee increases.

The plan, known as TABOR, showed strong support in the survey, with 54 percent of respondents favoring – or leaning toward favoring – the proposal. About 25 were percent opposed, and 21 percent were undecided.

Men were more likely than women to support the spending limits plan, which is expected to be a major draw to the polls this November. Its supporters say it will tame runaway government spending, while its opponents contend it will cripple government and school programs.

The SMS survey also showed incumbents in Congress holding early leads in their races, though the margin of error is significantly higher for the two U.S. House races because results were based on about 200 likely voters from each congressional district.

In the statewide race for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe had the support of 68 percent of those surveyed, while her Democratic challenger, Jean Hay Bright of Dixmont, had 10 percent. Bill Slavick, an independent from Portland, had 4 percent. Eighteen percent were undecided.

In the 1st Congressional District race, 57 percent of those surveyed favored Democratic incumbent Tom Allen compared to 11 percent for Republican Darlene Curley of Scarborough and 3 percent for independent Dexter Kamilewicz. About 29 percent were undecided.

In the 2nd Congressional District race, 62 percent of those surveyed favored incumbent Democrat Michael Michaud of East Millinocket compared to 14 percent for his Republican challenger, L. Scott D’Amboise of Lisbon. Twenty-four percent were undecided.

Aside from politics, the poll found that 54 percent of those surveyed believed the Boston Red Sox would win the 2006 World Series. About 29 percent said they would not win and 17 percent were unsure.