MEXICAN UNCERTAINTY

A month after Mexicans went to the polls to vote for a new president, the outcome of the election remains unclear. Like this country’s 2000 election, the final outcome is now in the hands of a court. Whether conservative, pro-business Felipe Calderon, the declared winner by just 243,000 votes out of 41 million cast, or anti-globalization, populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ultimately becomes president, the United States will have to become more attentive to Mexican affairs than it has in the past.

For more than seven decades one party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, ruled Mexico. In 2000, Vincente Fox ended its domination and began the rise of his party, the National Action Party. President Fox served one six-year term, all that is allowed under Mexican law.

On July 2, Mexicans voted for a new president as well as members of the country’s legislature. Election authorities declared Mr. Calderon the winner by just 0.6 percent of the vote. Mr. Lopez Obrador’s supporters claimed fraud, and massive protests began. On Sunday, he encouraged his supporters to engage in civil disobedience to push for a recount of all the ballots.

The vote count is now in the hands of a special electoral court that has until Sept. 6 to resolve the legal challenges. No matter the final outcome, the country’s relationship with the United States is going to change.

If conservative Felipe Calderon holds on to his razor-thin victory, he will likely move toward the left to quell protests that have drawn hundreds of thousands of supporters of his populist rival. The balloting split largely along economic lines with upper and middle-class voters supporting Mr. Calderon and the poor backing Mr. Lopez Obrador.

Globalization was also a fault line with Mr. Lopez Obrador’s supporters calling for changes and delays in the North American Free Trade Agreement because they fear increased agricultural imports from the United States will hurt small Mexican farms.

These are not just ideological differences. How the two countries resolve trade and economic issues will influence the flow of Mexicans crossing the American border looking for jobs. The United States must allow cheaper Mexican goods into the American market, says Pamela Starr, professor of Latin American studies at Georgetown University.

“The United States must accept the fact that if Mexico cannot export its goods to its main trading partner, it is destined to export its labor instead,” she wrote in a recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations. She suggests that the United States help Mexico create the 500,000 new jobs needed each year to employ “would-be migrants.”

After decades of stability and predictability, Mexico’s future is less predictable. That’s all the more reason for U.S. officials to work closely with the Mexican counterparts to develop economic and other policies that will benefit both countries.