IRAQI POLITICAL FALLBACK

Iraq slammed back into the news yesterday on comments from the United States and Britain over the seriousness of the insurgency there. That insurgency shows no sign of exhaustion and is, in the words of the British ambassador to Iraq, William Patey, increasing the likelihood of “of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq.”

His sobering view was reflected in comments before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, where Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan asked Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, commander of the U.S. Central Command, whether he agreed with this assessment. “Iraq is sliding toward civil war,” Gen. Abizaid said, “I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I’ve seen it, in Baghdad in particular, and that if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move towards civil war.”

Mr. Patey’s observation that this division in Iraq seemed more probable than a transition to a stable democracy was raised in a different way by Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina. He asked how it was that 30,000 or 40,000 insurgents could act successfully against not only the 130,000 U.S. troops, the rest of the coalition and the newly formed Iraqi security forces, but against the wishes of 25 million Iraqi citizens. The divisions, his question implies, are firmly in place, with the insurgency representing something greater than is generally recognized.

Whether the chaos in Iraq can be defined as civil war, near-civil war or something else, all witnesses before the Senate committee reluctantly turned to solutions other than military to confront the problem. Gen. Abizaid, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace all conceded the need for a political solution to create a lasting peace in Iraq.

This has always been part of the administration’s plans, but never was this venue more embraced by Defense than yesterday. Senators repeatedly asked questions about outcomes and solutions to sectarian violence and political answers became the standard response from the three. In a handy sound bite, Gen. Pace said Shiite and Sunni Muslims “are going to have to love their children more than they hate each other.”

Reform, that is, must come from within, at the political level and with the willingness of Iraq’s citizens. Sen. Susan Collins pressed this point when she asked what confidence the public should have in Iraqi security forces to maintain peace, should it be secured, when U.S. forces have yet to be able to achieve that.

Emphasizing political solutions is one way to acknowledge the limits of military power in this fight. (And, for that matter, in Lebanon.) But political solutions will take at least as much effort and likely more time than what has been expended so far. The message from the Senate committee, both its Republicans and Democrats, is that they are willing or in some cases eager to invest in this direction. The return message from Defense is grudging acceptance of this policy change.

The remarks at yesterday’s hearing were a long way from the expansive assertions of this nation’s ability to force change in the Middle East. The more realistic view was welcome.