Backward-walking candidate Chandler Woodcock, digitally manipulated in recent television ads from the Maine Democratic Party, is the Democrats’ bang-over-the-head argument for re-electing Gov. John Baldacci. The message – Woodcock would “take us backward” – is as obvious as the red backward-pointing arrow in the ads: Republican Woodcock would return Maine to pre-Roe v. Wade; he would allow intelligent design in the classroom and personify a brand of conservatism not even most Republicans in Maine practice.

It’s true that Woodcock, a state senator from Farmington, is as socially conservative a lawmaker as you will find. It’s also true that he’s running strongly against Baldacci, whose political views more closely match the broad middle of the Maine electorate. What is keeping this race close when it should have been over by now, however, is not Woodcock’s profile but the governor’s.

As with most incumbents who find themselves in an uncomfortably tight race, some of Baldacci’s problems can be attributed to his opponent, some to economic circumstances that, fairly or not, are hung around his neck and some to his or his administration’s own actions. What’s curious about the governor’s situation is that conditions in Maine have been slowly improving – unemployment is down, population is rising, more students are attending college, Maine’s workers’ comp ranking has improved, income is up, even if not uniformly up. You wouldn’t know that by looking at the polls, which show the governor barely ahead.

One reason for this is a very old lesson: Never let your opponents define you. Early in his term as governor, not coincidentally when many difficult budget cuts had to be made, state Republicans dressed Baldacci up as a weak leader without a plan. Baldacci balanced the budget, but he has yet to shake the image, and his approval rating, around 45 percent, reflects this.

Second, only partly from necessity, the governor often is seen reacting rather than setting his own agenda. On potential paper-mill and military-base closings, Baldacci is a recognized champ, working overtime, taking part in negotiations, doing whatever he can to help keep them open. But papermaking and submarine repair will become a smaller and smaller part of Maine’s future.

Through speeches, events and to a more limited extent in his budget, Baldacci has tried to emphasize the next wave of the economy, which is high tech, dependent on R&D and college degrees and wired by broadband to the rest of the world. His Office of Innovation has a fine plan for expanding research in Maine. But there can’t be one person in a thousand who knows this.

Third, and related, Baldacci is following eight years of Angus King, a man who could explain anything. Under Baldacci, real reforms such as LD 1 for government spending and Essential Programs and Services for schools have gone into effect. Ask your neighbors whether they have understood the governor’s explanations of these reforms.

Fourth, having promoted his Dirigo health plan and been clobbered for it, Baldacci now scoffs at anyone who urges him to be bold. Yet the public has never been hungrier for a strong sense of direction – just look at the support behind the Taxpayer Bill of Rights. Many voters will put their political beliefs in abeyance in exchange for strong, consistent leadership.

Fifth, the Democratic campaign is confusing. It’s a mixture of trying to get the governor to appear everywhere for any reason at all and, to keep costs down and avoid triggering Clean Election funds for the other candidates while keeping the governor’s hands clean, a Democratic Party pile-on against Woodcock. One problem with this strategy is that, whatever his beliefs, Woodcock is a likable guy and will soon be a sympathetic figure if the negative ads continue.

This could happen especially if, as in the similarly close 1990 race between Democrat Joe Brennan and Republican John McKernan, the opponent turns the tables on the negative ad. McKernan did that when he took a Brennan ad, which was stock video of football players fumbling and bumbling on the field that was supposed to suggest McKernan’s incompetence, and held a press conference in which he replayed the ad and denounced its negativity. Then he showed a strikingly similar video from a 1982 Louisiana gubernatorial race to demonstrate that Brennan not only ran a negative campaign but it was a swiped negative campaign.

McKernan won narrowly.

I’m not suggesting the “walking backward” ad is borrowed from any other campaign – and certainly not from the California gubernatorial race in which Republicans recently showed Democratic challenger Phil Angelides walking backward and end with the question “Why take California backward?” That’s got to be an unfortunate coincidence.

Still, it opens the possibility of Republicans defining Baldacci. Again.

Todd Benoit is the editorial page editor of the Bangor Daily News.