Exit poll: Mainers unlikely to ban slots

AUGUSTA – In 2003, Mainers rejected by a 2-to-1 ratio a proposal by Maine’s Indian tribes to build a casino in the state, while approving a racino – a combination slot machine parlor and racetrack – in Bangor by just under 30,000 votes out of the nearly 515,000 that were cast.

But an Election Day survey last week of 1,515 voters statewide indicates a significant shift in attitude, with 59 percent of those polled opposing a ballot initiative that would ban all slot machines in the state.

“Penn National has been very clever and very sustained in using television to convince people, even though it is not at the racetrack, that the racino has been a tremendous success,” said Chris Potholm, a government professor at Bowdoin College. “In politics, we call it broadcasting in the clear; there is no countervailing message.”

Potholm, who also owns his own polling firm, which did work three years ago for Casinos No, said the recent Election Day survey is a clear indication that the strategy of running ads now to help defeat a question not yet on the ballot is “very, very smart.”

The Election Day survey by Capitol News Service asked 1,515 voters leaving select polling places statewide the same question the citizen initiative is trying to get on the ballot in 2007: “Do you want to ban all public use of slot machines in Maine?” As worded if approved, the ban would shut down the current racino operation in Bangor.

The survey results showed broad opposition to banning slot machines, with voters in the 1st Congressional District opposing the ban 64 percent to 26 percent, while 54 percent of those polled in the 2nd Congressional District were opposed to the ban with 26 percent in support.

Support for the ban proposal was strongest among voters who identified themselves as conservative, with 60 percent of conservatives indicating they would support banning slots. Only 34 percent of voters identifying themselves as liberal said they would ban slots.

Age also appeared to be a factor in how those polled weighed in on the issue. About one-third of voters over 60 supported the ban, but only 10 percent of 18- to 25-year-olds supported the proposal.

Donald Soctomah, the Passamaquoddy Tribe’s representative to the Legislature, was pleased with the exit poll’s results. He believes the tribe has submitted enough signatures to put its own racino proposal before the Legislature in January and is waiting for certification of the petition signatures by the secretary of state.

That potential referendum questions reads: “Do you want to allow a Maine tribe to run a harness racing track with slot machines and high-stakes beano games in Washington County?”

“Right now the only economic future we see in Washington County is the racino,” Soctomah said. “It will provide both a big boost for the tribe and for the people of Washington County.”

Soctomah said he believes the results of the exit poll were driven by voters seeing the Hollywood Slots facility bringing jobs and economic improvements to the Bangor area, without the drawbacks opponents had warned of three years ago.

“There is no criminal element like the big concern was when we brought up the casino issue and the racino issue,” he said. “So I think that is calming people’s fears. The way the tribe views it, if we are doing good, our neighbors will be doing good.”

Steve Whiting, a Portland lawyer who is on the board of the group seeking to ban all slot machines in Maine, agreed with Potholm that the television “propaganda” statewide has been part of an early effort to defeat the proposal before it is even on the ballot.

“Assuming those numbers are correct, it shows a shift in opinion, and that is very disturbing,” he said. “We have not seen the consequences of this thing yet. We have just seen the tip of the iceberg with a number of families having to file for bankruptcies.”

Whiting said there have been economic studies that indicate no major increase in crime in the first year or two of operation. But, he said, crime rates, particularly for property crimes, go up after five years. “It’s not here in the magnitude that you find in Las Vegas or Atlantic City, but it’s coming,” Whiting said. “It is coming.”

He said his group has collected about 15,000 signatures, with “thousands of petitions” still in the hands of circulators. He said the group plans to meet this week to set strategy for getting the rest of the signatures it needs.

The state constitution requires that 50,519 valid signatures be filed with the secretary of state by Jan. 25, 2007, for any citizen-initiated issue to be considered by lawmakers or get on the ballot in 2007.

Another group, lead by lawyer Seth Carey, is circulating petitions to allow a casino resort to be built in western Maine near the Sunday River Ski Resort. He said his group had signature gatherers out on Election Day, but he was not sure enough signatures had been collected yet.

That initiative question asks: “Do you want to allow a certain Maine company to have the only casino in Maine, to be located in Oxford County, if part of the revenue is used to fund specific state programs?”

“I think this survey shows what I have been picking up,” Carey said. “People are not opposed to gambling, and our proposal has support.”

Dennis Bailey, spokesman for Casinos No, said the group has not yet taken a position in support of the petition effort to ban all slots in the state. Nor has the organization’s board of directors decided whether to oppose the racino or casino initiatives.