When the Roman Catholic Patriarch of the Holy Land Michel Sabbah celebrates mass in the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem this Christmas Eve, events in the town and region will have changed dramatically from where they were just one year ago.

Last Christmas, after an accord negotiated by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Israel completed its withdrawal from Gaza, cross-border terrorist attacks against Israelis diminished, and West Bank and Gaza Palestinians completed local elections under the supervision of democratically-elected President Muhammad Abbas. The symbolic presence of Abbas, a Sunni Muslim, in the Nativity Church on Christmas Eve was cause for hope among moderates of many faiths.

Since last Christmas, Palestinians elected an Islamic fundamentalist Hamas government which has been at loggerheads with Abbas and his moderate, secular Fatah faction. Civil war rages in the Gaza Strip on a daily basis. Last summer Gaza-based Hamas militants kidnapped Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit and launched a rocket barrage against Israeli border farms, villages, and one city, Sderot. These attacks coincided with Israel’s 34-day war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers on its northern frontier, and threats from a nuclearizing Iran to “wipe Israel off the map.”

While peace on Earth seems to have eluded Bethlehem and environs for much of this past year, one should bear in mind the broader contours of events in the Middle East. Despite an upsurge in violence between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah and renewed Iranian threats, there are also some peaceful trends in the Middle East.

Israel and overwhelmingly Muslim Turkey continue to enjoy the full diplomatic relations they have had since 1949. Military ties have flourished. In 2003 more than 300,000 Israeli tourists visited the Turkish resort of Antalya. In 2006 it remains a prime Israeli tourist destination.

Despite Syria’s backing of the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia in a proxy war with Israel, Syria and Israel enjoy a frontier which has been casualty-free since l973. Indeed, the Henry Kissinger-brokered Israeli-Syrian Disengagement Agreement of l974 may have set an all-time record for peace between two former Middle Eastern adversaries. It certainly has outlived numerous peace agreements between Arab states.

Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty 11 years ago and have quietly settled a long-simmering frontier dispute over an area informally renamed “Peace Island.” El Al Israel Airlines services the Jordanian capital of Amman. Jordanian airliners, unlike those of any other Arab country, fly over Israeli air space. Negotiations are under way to regularly export Israeli Dead Sea minerals via the Jordanian port of Aqaba and Jordanian products via Israel’s Mediterranean ports, freeing up Israel’s southern port of Elat for expansion of tourist hotels.

Israel has enjoyed only a cold peace with Egypt since President Anwar Sadat’s courageous visit to Jerusalem 29 years ago. Nevertheless, the current treaty-based Israeli-Egyptian relationship is infinitely superior to the incessant warfare that characterized the 30 years prior to Sadat’s visit. An example of that cold but peaceful relationship is the reversion of the Taba beach resort to Egyptian sovereignty after agonizing negotiations culminating in a case before the International Court of Justice in the Hague. Former Israeli hotels in Taba are once again packed with Israeli sun worshippers.

Last but not least, moderate President Muhammad Abbas continues to serve the Palestinian Authority and remains a negotiating partner of Israel and the West. He will almost surely make an appearance in the Nativity Church in Bethlehem once again this Christmas Eve. This Noel in Bethlehem will not be a return to the joyous festivities of Christmases past. But nor will it be a situation totally devoid of hope.

Jonathan Goldstein, a University of West Georgia history professor and summer resident of Pushaw Lake, is doing research and writing in Jerusalem. He has visited Bethlehem on many Christmases since 1984.