In November 2005, coalition troop strength in Iraq numbered 183,000 without achieving the victory sought by the United States. At the end of November 2006, the coalition number was 158,000. Adding 21,500 to the more recent total, as President Bush announced Wednesday, even assuming distribution of troops better reflects the concentrations of violence in Iraq, does not change the path of the war as it rolls further into chaos.

In laying out his plan, President Bush acknowledged mistakes of the past several years, a welcome move, and pointed a way forward with increased troops – 17,500 in Baghdad, 4,000 in al-Anbar province – as well as relying more heavily on the Iraqi government to provide effective security and foster national reconciliation. His primary short-term goal, over the next 12 to 18 months, is to defeat al-Qaida and its supporters in Iraq.

That is a fine goal, but the collection of tactics he proposed was not backed up with an argument that demonstrated it would work any better than what has been tried for more than three years. In particular, there is no evidence the Iraqi government is able to perform as the president says it must. (It should be noted that the Democratic response to the president’s speech, from Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin of Illinois, was equally disappointing – withdrawal without a substantial plan or a plan for the aftermath in Iraq. His comment that “we have given the Iraqis so much” was offensive.)

The news before the president offered his plan was that military generals were telling him 20,000 or so more troops was not enough to make a difference and that the absence of a regional strategy to maintain Iraq’s integrity and seek political accommodation would mean the new troops would simply be additional targets. If that is true, sending in more troops would be tragic. Nevertheless, after a month’s delay, the president proceeded with his plan.

William Cohen, a former Maine Republican senator and defense secretary under President Bill Clinton, said yesterday in The Washington Post that the president is “pretty much alone on this.” The lack of public support was evident from several polls taken in recent days. For instance, a poll taken Jan. 10 by the Post and ABC News found that 64 percent opposed the way the president was handling Iraq, with 61 percent opposed to sending additional troops.

Achievable goals – persuading the Maliki government to extend more aid and support to infrastructure, recognizing in a formal way that the invasion of Iraq changed the power structure of the entire region, a plan that addresses the changes in Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Israel – would show a way out of Iraq that was neither defeat nor more of the same violence that has crippled Baghdad.

Without that broader view, the nation will remain stuck in failed policies, with horrific results in Iraq.