Even for the most hard-core cinephile, at this point in the game, after weeks of awards shows – from the Critics’ Choice Awards to the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs to the SAGs, the DGAs to the PGAs – awards fatigue hasn’t just set in, it has become a condition with its own red carpet – the DOAs.

But now, the Academy Awards are upon us, which at last will put an end to all of that glad-handing madness and to the speeches that now sound so frustratingly canned.

Hosted by Ellen DeGeneres at 8 p.m. Sunday on ABC, the evening promises more tension than a celebrity face-lift – which is considerable, as a glance around the audience will confirm.

Several key races are difficult to call. Who knew, for instance, that “Little Miss Sunshine” would emerge as a genuine contender for Best Picture? Or that Peter O’Toole, so good in “Venus,” might prove the dark horse in a race many are certain will go to Forest Whitaker? Or that Eddie Murphy, that old transsexual favorite (Google it, kids), would one day be the front-runner for an Academy Award? It’s this element of uncertainty that will give the show the spark of life it needs, allowing for several surprises to be tucked within the shoo-ins.

Hands down, the night’s closest race belongs to Best Picture, with “The Queen” taking on “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Letters from Iwo Jima” and “Little Miss Sunshine.” In the real world, “The Queen” would just take them all out with a dismissive glance (and who knows, she just might), but right now, the groundswell of support is behind three films – “The Departed,” “Babel” and “Sunshine.”

While Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed” deserves to win – it was last year’s best, most electrifying film – it isn’t the director’s best film and it might be too violent for the Academy to embrace fully. As for “Sunshine,” it’s a sweet movie, for sure, but it’s a sweet little movie that’s hardly in the same league as “The Departed” and “Babel.” In this case, the film’s nomination is the prize, though if the movie does win, it will be one of the Academy’s great upsets.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s socially conscious “Babel,” on the other hand, is a reasonable bet. Mirroring the director’s most obvious influences – Luis Bunuel, Quentin Tarantino and Pedro Almodovar (though without the latter’s humor) – Inarritu asks his audience to join him in the work of piecing together a difficult narrative. In this safe environment of so many rote movies, that’s a refreshing approach, particularly if there is a satisfying payoff at hand, which is the case here.

Expect “Babel” to take the award. That said, here’s hoping I’m wrong and that it’s “The Departed” that wins.

Cutting through any haze of uncertainty is the award for Best Supporting Actress, with Jennifer Hudson nominated for her steamroller performance as Effie White in “Dreamgirls,” Rinko Kikuchi as a self-destructive youth in “Babel,” Cate Blanchett as the doomed teacher in “Notes on a Scandal,” Adriana Barraza as the beleaguered nanny in “Babel,” and 10-year-old Abigail Breslin as the miniature burlesque stripper who could (and did) in “Little Miss Sunshine.” While Barraza is a standout, the award will go to Hudson, who has the sort of talent that, if handled correctly, could help her achieve lasting stardom.

The race for Best Supporting Actor is, at best, a curiosity, with Eddie Murphy favored to win for “Dreamgirls.” He has gained such momentum in the past few weeks, one has to wonder whether anybody has seen the other nominees.

Joining him in the race are Alan Arkin for “Little Miss Sunshine,” Djimon Hounsou for “Blood Diamond,” Jackie Earle Haley for “Little Children” and Mark Wahlberg as the verbally abusive, fast-talking detective in “The Departed.” Every one of these men was better than Murphy, whose underwritten character made for a performance that was only occasionally compelling. Still, for those who understand that the Academy Awards often aren’t about best anything, this is Hollywood’s chance to celebrate all that Murphy has done for the industry, which, financially speaking, is plenty. While it would be great if Arkin or Haley won, expect the award to go to Murphy.

Once again, Dame Judi Dench is up for Best Actress, this time for her seething performance in “Notes on a Scandal.” She’s convincingly cruel in the role, but here is a note that already has been written – in spite of fine performances from Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada,” Kate Winslet in “Little Children” and especially Penelope Cruz in Pedro Almodovar’s “Volver,” it’s Helen Mirren who will surprise absolutely nobody with her win for her performance as Queen Elizabeth II in “The Queen.”

Set in the wake of Princess Diana’s death, the film finds Elizabeth II caught with her blue blood all over her hands. What Mirren captures behind those grim, set lips hardened by time, privilege and the weight of expectation is a woman vaguely more human than we might have imagined, though thankfully not stripped of mystery. Couple this with Mirren’s ferocious turn in the HBO movie “Elizabeth,” in which she played Queen Elizabeth I, and you witness a kind of genius.

The award for Best Actor also appears to be a foregone conclusion. Nominated are Forest Whitaker for his eerily spot-on portrayal of the dictator Idi Amin in “The Last King of Scotland,” Peter O’Toole for his moving performance as an elderly actor in love with a younger woman in the underseen “Venus,” Will Smith as a man struggling to improve his life in “The Pursuit of Happyness,” and Ryan Gosling as a drug-addicted middle-school teacher in “Half Nelson.”

Unless O’Toole offers an upset, which he very well might after losing his seven previous nominations, it will be Whitaker taking the stage.

Given the fight for Best Picture, the award for Best Director is a lock. In a race that includes Paul Greengrass for “United 93,” Inarritu for “Babel,” Stephen Frears for “The Queen” and Clint Eastwood for “Letters from Iwo Jima,” it will be Martin Scorsese winning his first Academy Award for “The Departed.” Finally.

Rounding out the evening is the race for Best Animated Picture, with “Happy Feet” and “Cars” pressing out “Monster House.” Though “Happy Feet” was last year’s best animated film, the long-winded, meandering “Cars” has the edge going in to the awards (it won the International Animated Film Society’s prestigious Annie Award) and should take the category. For Best Documentary, expect Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” to win over “Deliver us from Evil,” “Iraq in Fragments,” “Jesus Camp” and “My Country, My Country.”

In the writing categories, Michael Arndt will win Best Original Screenplay for “Little Miss Sunshine” over Peter Morgan’s “The Queen,” Iris Yamashia’s “Letters from Iwo Jima,” Guillermo del Toro’s “Pan’s Labyrinth” and its toughest competition, Guillermo Arriaga’s “Babel.” The Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay will go to William Monahan’s smashing work on “The Departed” over Patrick Marber’s “Notes on a Scandal,” Todd Field and Tom Perrotta’s “Little Children,” Sacha Baron Cohen’s “Borat” and Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby, Alfonso Cuaron, Timothy Sexton and David Arata’s undervalued “Children of Men.”

Finally, in the category of Best Foreign Language Film, look for Oscar to find his way through the intoxicating maze of Guillermo del Toro’s “Pan’s Labyrinth,” which will win over “Water,” “Days of Glory,” “The Lives of Others” and “After the Wedding.”

Or will it? When it comes to predicting the Academy Awards, perhaps William Goldman said it best – nobody knows anything. But it’s fun to try.

Visit www.weekinrewind.com, the archive of Bangor Daily News film critic Christopher Smith’s reviews, which appear Mondays and Fridays in Lifestyle, weekends in Television as well as on bangordailynews.com. He may be reached at Christopher@weekinrewind.com.

THE VIDEO-DVD CORNER

Renting a video or a DVD? BDN film critic Christopher Smith can help. Below are his grades of recent releases in video stores. Those in bold print are new to video stores this week.

Alexander Revisited: The Final Cut – C

Alien vs. Predator: Blu-ray – B-

Babel – A-

Ballykissangel: Complete Series Five – B+

The Black Dahlia – C-

Cars – C

Crank – B+

The Departed – A

The Devil Wears Prada – B+-

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift – B

Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children – C+

Flight of the Phoenix: Blu-ray – C-

Flushed Away – B+

Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties – C+

The Illusionist – B+

Inside Man – B+

Invincible – B

Little Miss Sunshine – B+