Nearly a year ago, Maine’s wildlife biologists peered into their crystal balls (and crunched more numbers than you can imagine) and came up with a preseason prediction on the success of 2006 deer hunters.

Their estimate: 29,400 deer would fall during the state’s varied deer seasons.

Well, the final numbers are in, and once again the biologists were right: The actual total was 29,918 deer – a difference of just 518 critters.

(For the record, reports that Department of Inland Fisheries & Wildlife biologists also correctly predicted back in April that I would again fail to fill my tag could not be substantiated by press time).

The 2006 kill was nearly 1,800 more than the 2005 total of 28,148 and more than 1,000 above the 20-year average of 28,700.

In all last year, hunters killed 16,081 adult bucks and 13,798 antlerless deer. About 71 percent of the deer were tagged by Maine residents, and Mainers enjoyed a 26.8 percent success rate, while nonresidents were successful at a 22 percent rate.

Hunters without an any-deer permit harvested bucks at a 10 to 12 percent success rate.

On Wednesday, I sat down with Lee Kantar, the state’s head deer biologist, to talk about the season that was, and the prediction that was right on the mark.

“It’s kind of a funny thing, because we go through a series of [predictions],” Kantar said. “In the spring we make that prediction, and then in the fall, during the actual harvest … we look at 5,000 to 6,000 [deer to make another prediction].”

After the season was completed – and based on the data compiled by looking at those 5,000 to 6,000 deer – the state estimate actually dropped a hair, to about 29,200.

Which means that this year, the preseason model that the department is so adept at compiling actually was more accurate than its in-the-field follow-up work.

Kantar said the preseason estimate, which DIF&W staffers are already busily preparing so that doe permit allocations can be made, take a number of criteria into account.

Kantar said that back in 2000, when a new state wildlife planning period began, goals were developed to stabilize or reduce the central and southern Maine deer herd.

That move may have made future deer-kill predictions more stable, as the deer populations in those regions became more predictable. And the more accurate those predictions are, the more apt the DIF&W is to accurately predict the statewide kill.

“Of course, as southern and central Maine goes, so does the rest of Maine,” Kantar said. “Because if you’re only harvesting a hundred deer in a northern district, that doesn’t add a lot to the total harvest.”

Penobscot County enjoyed the highest level of deer-hunting success, as 3,509 deer were killed there in 2006. Somerset (3,472), Kennebec (2,920) and Cumberland (2,677) counties were other top producers.

Kantar said the regional deer herd woes in Washington and Aroostook counties continued to exist in varying degrees.

“Some of the northern districts have continued to have a decline, which is disappointing, and some of the Down East districts are kind of looking a little bit more stable, but still fairly low compared to years and years ago.”

Kantar said that while the 2006 season lived up to expectations, there were a couple of interesting numbers that popped up.

“[In 2005] we had a pathetic statewide October [archery] season, and our youth hunt was pretty poor as well,” Kantar said. “[In 2006] our youth hunt was way the heck up – it was the biggest youth hunt since the beginning of the youth hunt in 2002 – and the archery season in October was way the heck up, too.”

In 2005, 384 deer were killed by hunters during the October archery season, while 781 were tagged in 2006.

The youth hunt accounted for far more deer than in past years: In 2002, 553 deer were tagged on the first Youth Deer Day, which precedes the regular firearms season by one week. In following years, the totals fluctuated a bit, with 827 tagged in 2003, 454 tagged in 2004 and 672 tagged in 2005.

But last fall, a whopping 1,216 deer fell to the efforts of the state’s young hunters on their own special day.

Kantar also said biologists expected to see a higher buck harvest in 2006 than in 2005, and that held true. And as expected a higher percentage of those bucks were yearlings.

The state’s biologists pay particular attention to the severity of Maine’s winters, and keep track of that severity through a series of weekly reports filed from 28 locations in Maine.

The result is a 15-year average that biologists depend on the predict how many fawns will be born and survive. Mild winters lead to healthy does (and heavier fawns). Severe winters take their toll on both, as well as bucks.

Though Kantar and the rest of the DIF&W wildlife biologists continue to compile data for the 2007 preseason prediction, he did offer up a preview: Don’t expect things to change too much.

“I don’t think it’s going to look a lot different than this last year,” Kantar said. “I think it’s going to hold steady.”

Whether you think that’s good news … or bad … may well depend on whether you were still holding your unfilled tag at the end of November.

John Holyoke can be reached at jholyoke@bangordailynews.net or by calling 990-8214 or 1-800-310-8600.