Maine’s role in presidential race reduced State’s influence in nominating process will change as other states hold primaries earlier

AUGUSTA – Maine’s long role as one of the early states to caucus and elect delegates based on presidential preference is no more for Democrats and is marginalized for Republicans, according to several political observers.

“It’s totally different than it has been,” said Colby College political science professor Sandy Maisel last week. “Maine’s role is not the same this time.”

In 2004, Maine Democrats caucused to elect delegates on Feb. 8. Next year it will be two days later, but instead of being the 12th state to caucus, Maine will be at least the 35th state to caucus or hold a primary, with several states considering moving their primary or caucus date to earlier in 2008.

The Republicans used to spread their caucuses over several weeks. Next year they will be held over three days, Feb. 1-3, just before what is shaping up as the biggest single day of the presidential nominating process, Feb. 5, when at least half the states are holding primaries or caucuses.

“Over half the delegates could be decided that day,” said Bowdoin College government professor Chris Potholm last week. “There are still states deciding when they will hold their elections.”

University of Maine at Farmington political science professor Jim Melcher agrees. He said last week with such delegate-rich states as California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania all holding primaries on “Super Tuesday,” candidates will focus their resources and campaign time where the votes are.

“The races were spread out over several months, but this time, it could be over in a few weeks,” he said.

Maine GOP party chairman Joe Bruno believes Maine Republicans will see candidates campaigning in the state because the caucus results will be released the Sunday before Super Tuesday. Only six states will have selected delegates by then.

“We should be able to get some press play from that,” he said last week.

Maine Democratic Party Chairman Ben Dudley has developed his own spreadsheet that shows half the delegates to the Democratic nominating convention in Denver will have been selected by Feb. 10, when Maine Democrats caucus. He said last week that Maine Democrats need to draw their presidential candidates to the state in 2007.

“I am very actively engaged in getting each of the candidates to come to Maine in 2007,” he said. “And we are actively discussing a straw poll-type event in the fall.”

Dudley acknowledged he was borrowing the idea from Sen. Barry Hobbins, D-Saco, who as party chairman in 1983 organized a straw poll that drew candidates and national media interest.

Bruno said he would like to see a debate among GOP candidates in Maine, but that idea has not yet met with success.

“It’s hard to get these folks to commit two weeks out, never mind eight months out,” he said.

Maisel said that while the party leaders are trying to draw candidates to the state, he doubts they will meet with much success. He said campaign managers will be looking at the delegate-rich large states and sending the candidates where they can reach the larger number of potential voters.

“I don’t think we are gong to see many candidates in the state, as we did in the past,” he said.

Melcher said Maine might get some candidates campaigning in the state as a side trip from a New Hampshire campaign visit. He said some of the candidates farther down in the pack may make a tactical decision to campaign in the state.

“Now it is so important to raise a lot of money that candidates spend a lot of time at these multihundred-dollar-a-plate dinners,” he said. “There is not the time for campaigning there used to be.”

Potholm said 30 years ago Maine was one of the first few states to select delegates, so candidates visited early and often. He said many would visit New Hampshire and Maine on the same campaign swing. He said a longer campaign period gave voters time to learn about the candidates outside of the barrage of 30-second television ads.

“I think it’s a terrible, terrible development for American democracy,” he said. “It means that money and television time will have even more importance than it has in the past.”