Sen. Olympia Snowe last week concluded, as many political leaders who support President George Bush have, that the current White House strategy in Iraq is inadequate. That is not news to the majority of Americans, who have been doubtful about the war for years, but unlike most of her GOP colleagues, she would set a deadline for deciding whether those policies should be sustained.
For Congress to continue supporting the president’s troop surge in Iraq, Sen. Snowe wants evidence over the next four months that the Iraqi government has met specific benchmarks that demonstrate progress. If the Iraqi government does not achieve those benchmarks, legislation submitted by Maine’s senior senator would require the United States to redeploy, in stages, the 28,000 “surge” troops. It’s not exactly “U.S. Out of Iraq Now,” and the bill may not become the vehicle the Senate uses in a post-veto supplemental for war funding, but the message from a moderate Republican is clear enough.
And it is similar to remarks made earlier this month by presidential adviser and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who said of Iraq, “A military victory in the sense of total control over the whole territory, imposed on the entire population, is not possible.” The Bush administration has itself said bringing peace and stability to Iraq will take much more than a military effort, but it has not acted as if it believes its own words, relying year after year on a military facing longer tours of duty. If a Democratic Congress is serious about the deadlines it discusses, it will include preparations for the aftermath of the U.S. troop presence, including regional and economic support for Iraq.
The approach by Sen. Snowe is incremental – it gives the White House the time it said it needed to demonstrate the effectiveness of its troop surge. It does nothing to threaten the removal of all U.S. troops, a threat that would, according to Sen. Snowe, “telegraph to our enemies a precise departure date that would jeopardize the security of our men and women on the ground.”
Whether the Iraq government is capable of acting as Congress would like is an open question. Whether President Bush would listen to a congressional protest is also uncertain. Senate Democrats this week are likely to take a halfway approach – full funding of U.S. troops in Iraq to cover two months and give Congress time to think up something else.
Though there is nothing like unanimity in Washington now, a pattern is emerging and it includes a slow withdrawal of troops. A Congress looking further ahead will begin asking what the United States can do to support the political and economic processes that will come after that.
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