A WARNING FROM PETRAEUS

The troop surge in Iraq this spring seemed to give a way out to members of Congress who supported the Iraq war all the way to the corner where it now resides. They could await the progress report on the surge, to be issued in September by Gen. David Petraeus, who is the leader Washington has decided to trust in describing the war. If success were as limited as it appeared, they could justify a swift exit to a war most Americans wish would end.

Last weekend during a television interview, Gen. Petraeus suggested that military progress around Baghdad was noticeable, but, as expected, among Iraqi politicians there “have not been real substantial achievements.” But he also said, “Typically, I think historically, counter-insurgency operations have gone at least nine or 10 years.” He was careful not to offer a policy recommendation based on that, but the implication was obvious.

We don’t know whether a decade is a realistic time frame, but if members of Congress are willing to trust the general’s assessment in September, they would also trust his estimate that typically a decade may be needed to defeat an insurgency. That makes waiting until September to decide to leave dangerously cynical: U.S. troops will be in harm’s way between now and whatever departure date is chosen. Delaying that decision now that the general has offered his views on military progress and the lack of political progress means more deaths.

To remain in Iraq, Congress would need to take the simplest step and ask Gen. Petraeus whether the insurgency looks “typical” or worse. An affirmative answer from him would mean that staying in Iraq involved a commitment that would last many more years. Is a majority of Congress willing to support a war in Iraq for another five or six years?

Plan B for Congress is the report by the Iraq Study Group, but even there they will find problems – not with the recommendations but with the chances of Iraq meeting expectations.

A member of the study group, former chief of staff to Bill Clinton, Leon Panetta, not long ago pointed out in a commentary how far the Iraqi government had to go. Among its unfulfilled promises were provincial elections laws, oil industry regulation, a de-Baathification law, a referendum on constitutional amendments, a militias law, local elections, civil control of the provinces and complete control of its own army. When Gen. Petraeus notes the absence of substantial achievement, this is what he means, and this is unlikely to change significantly in the coming two months.

Knowing the political direction in Iraq and where that will leave the country in September, knowing the defeat of an insurgency could very well take several more years, knowing that death counts in Iraq are higher now than a couple of years ago, Congress cannot go on vacation for most of the summer, as it plans, and think it can return in September to calmly discuss its next move.

Even if daily newspaper headlines do not disturb them, the words of the general they trust should.