REASSESSING IRAQ

The latest assessment on progress in Iraq closely follows a National Intelligence Estimate in July: some military gains of uncertain durability and little or no political gains to build the peace. The Government Accountability Office, which issued its study Tuesday, is not a policymaking branch – it can’t set the direction for the United States in Iraq – but it can point the way toward better policy, and has done so this time.

The GAO report found that Iraqi leaders had met three of the 18 benchmarks set last year; it partly met four others and failed to meet 11. According to the Washington Post, Defense Department officials say the report is too harsh in some areas and that some information, such as the number of Iraqi Army units able to operate independent of U.S. support, should remain classified.

But even among the different interpretations the overall conclusion from multiple sources is that a successful outcome is several years away if it arrives at all. The GAO findings this week prompted Rep. Tom Allen to conclude, “I am more convinced than ever that Congress must set a binding deadline to bring our forces home, and direct our attention toward the effort to combat global terrorism instead of trying to referee a religious civil war.”

The Bush administration, conversely, is changing the measure of success by emphasizing small but growing support among tribal Sunni leaders to fight al-Qaida in Iraq. That is, indeed, an encouraging sign, but it’s nowhere near a signal of a sustained and effective central government that can run a country. More, it suggests that the goals and strategies publicly pursued for years by the administration – a democratic Iraq – no longer is the aim.

Next week, the administration will have a chance to present its views of progress in the war when Gen. David Petraeus, commander of the multi-national force in Iraq, presents his views to Congress on the effects of the troop surge this summer. Whether they match exactly with the GAO and earlier NIE assessments is less important than what Congress does with the information. It should ask, for instance, what can be achieved in Iraq in the next six months, next year and next two years based on the accumulation of progress reports. And under what circumstances can U.S. troops be redeployed to cause the least avoidable harm?

Sen. Olympia Snowe observed Tuesday that, “If the surge was designed to give the Iraqi government breathing room to finally make substantial strides for the sake of the country’s destiny, the GAO conclusions should give all of us serious pause as to our course of action going forward.”

In that pause, Congress should reassess its assumptions about Iraq and face the limits of what level of stability the Iraqi government can achieve.