POTENCY IN EYE OF BEHOLDER

“Virtually impotent” is the phrase the Bush administration has chosen to describe Osama bin Laden. The fact that the terrorist mastermind, on the run since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, is still issuing videos to his followers, despite their often rambling messages, says more about the impotence of the War on Terror than about the bearded al-Qaida leader.

While intelligence analysts puzzled over every detail of the video released last week – what did it mean, for example, that his beard was black (hint: he has access to hair dye) – appearance of the video itself is what matters to his followers. The video, which makes mention of the Democratic takeover of Congress following the 2006 elections and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who won that office in May, is the first since October 2004.

It does not mention any imminent attacks, referring instead to the dangers of global warming and the subprime mortgage market. The solution, Mr. bin Laden says, is to embrace Islam.

In response, White House security adviser Frances Fragos Townsend said: “This is about the best he can do. This is a man on a run, from a cave, who’s virtually impotent other than these tapes,” she said on the weekend television talk shows.

Mr. bin Laden’s appearance in a video after so many years on the run is itself a victory, say international terrorism experts. “The objective is obviously to show that despite everything in place against him, he has survived. That’s the number one message,” Anne Guidicelli, a French terrorism consultant told the Associated Press.

Mr. bin Laden’s reappearance also comes at a time when many, including the U.S. government, warn that al-Qaida is rebuilding. The question is whether it is more diffuse and therefore less organized as Mr. bin Laden’s lieutenants have been killed.

Appearing before the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Tuesday, National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell said eliminating the threat that Mr. bin Laden and his inner circle pose from their hideout in the tribal region bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan is “our number one priority.”

According to recent media reports, U.S. and Afghan forces came close to capturing Mr. bin Laden in Tora Bora in 2001 and again in the winter of 2004. Because of turf battles between U.S. agencies, power struggles within Pakistan and simple mistakes, these efforts failed. Therefore, any message from the al-Qaida leader makes him potent in the eyes of his supporters.