It is a critical week for the Boston Red Sox. But not in the way you might think.
Yes, it would be nice to win the American League East ahead of the surging Yankees.
That would also ensure home-field advantage if the Red Sox and Yankees meet in the AL Championship Series. They can’t meet in the first round because they’re in the same division.
The Red Sox are still battling the Yankees for home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
But home-field advantage isn’t nearly as significant in baseball as it is in other sports.
And even if the Yankees win the AL East, everything revolves around the playoffs.
Do you think anyone will dwell on the fact the Red Sox squandered a 14-game lead if they go further than the Yankees in the playoffs?
You might also think that it is important to gain some momentum with a strong finish and a divisional title.
Think again.
The St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series a year ago after posting an 83-78 regular-season record. The Red Sox won three more games than the Cards and finished third in the AL East!
The most important aspects of the final six regular-season games are establishing the pitching setup for the playoffs and the health and effectiveness of Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis.
The pitching rotation will feature Cy Young Award candidate Josh Beckett (20-6, 3.14 ERA) in the playoff opener.
But who will start in the No. 2 spot?
Curt Schilling (8-8, 3.97) has certainly pitched better than Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12, 4.48) lately but, when he’s at his best, Matsuzaka has more dominant stuff than Schilling.
However, Matsuzaka has given up four runs or more in an inning eight times and you can’t afford to give up big innings in the playoffs.
And Schilling has something Matsuzaka doesn’t have: playoff experience.
In addition, Schilling is 8-2 record with a 2.06 ERA in the postseason.
Unfortunately, Tim Wakefield hasn’t been the same since returning from his back injury and may just have to be a spare part in the playoffs.
Jon Lester or rookie Clay Buchholz could be the No. 4 starter if they need one but they don’t have playoff experience.
However, both are capable of shutting down teams if they have their control.
The bullpen picture should clear up this week.
Manager Terry Francona has to get some good looks at Eric Gagne (2-2, 7.88 ERA with Boston) in clutch situations to establish whether he can rely on him in the postseason.
He will also need to establish if Hideki Okajima’s tired arm is still tired. You have to have strong middle relief to get to closer Jonathan Papelbon.
Manny Delcarmen has definitely earned his spot as a setup man and Javier Lopez has been somewhat effective.
Bryan Corey hadn’t allowed a run and gave up just three hits in seven appearances entering Tuesday’s play and if that trend continues, he has to be ahead of the inconsistent Gagne, Julian Tavarez, Kyle Snyder and Mike Timlin on the depth chart.
If Ramirez and Youkilis return, the big question is who starts in right: rookie Jacoby Ellsbury or the disappointing J.D. Drew.
Drew has playoff experience although he has hit just .233 in the postseason.
I love speed. Go with Ellsbury.
Larry Mahoney can be reached at 990-8231, 1-800-310-8600 or by email at lmahoney@bangordailynews.net.
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