BUDGET WARNINGS

David Walker has made himself the nation’s fiscal Cassandra, a fitting pursuit for the comptroller general of the United States. But even as he warned again last week about the budgetary doom the Congress and White House seem to prefer the public not consider too closely, Washington tries to maintain business as usual.

Mr. Walker’s message is this: During the last 40 years, the rise of mandatory spending – from 26 percent of the total budget to 53 percent today – and growing liabilities place the country on “a burning platform.” In 2000, the nation had major fiscal exposures (debt, Social Security, pensions, Medicare) of $20.4 trillion. As of last year, it stood at $50.5 trillion, an increase of 147 percent.

What does this mean? It means that every person in the country is, on average, on the hook for $170,000. And you thought your credit card bill was high. It means, more specifically, that either Congress begins collecting a lot more taxes or begins cutting programs deeply. As Mr. Walker points out, the debt is made worse by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and by outdated government structures and policies. The other course is to hope for double-digit economic growth for the next 75 years, a practical impossibility.

Fortunately, Mr. Walker doesn’t merely warn of disaster; he offers an incremental way out. Some of his better ideas are to return to the 10-year budget estimates so presidents can’t hide major costs beyond the current five-year time frame. Restore a pay-as-you-go method of budgeting for both new spending and tax cuts. He would also require long-term cost estimates, an especially important change for entitlements, and Mr. Walker would borrow from state legislatures and have Congress consider biennial budgeting.

Beyond these small steps, Mr. Walker suggests something more radical, a kind of No Child Left Behind outcomes standard for the country. He would have Congress create a portfolio of economic, social and environmental indicators to measure how this country compares with other nations. Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Canada, he says, already do this. The reason the United States should join them is that, for all its might and wealth, it ranks a mediocre 16th out of 28 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in areas such as education, science and technology, prices and quality of life.

Comparing this nation’s performance to other nations would force Congress to ask questions about how well tax dollars are spent and to what end. It would raise the level of debate over what the federal government should try to accomplish and how it might become more effective. And it would mean that Mr. Walker no longer would be issuing a warning that no one heeded but would become a member of a large chorus of voices to warn Washington of the danger ahead.