‘Independent’ Mainers get ready to caucus

With preliminary contests in Iowa and New Hampshire ratcheting up the nationwide focus on this year’s presidential campaign, Mainers are reviewing their choices and getting ready to participate in the party caucuses scheduled for next month.

There have been no recent polls in Maine about which candidates voters might support, so who is leading in the state is not clear. Polls taken last year showed Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York with a sizable lead among Democrats. But after Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois won the Iowa contest and Clinton won a close race in New Hampshire on Tuesday, there is no clear national frontrunner among the Democrats.

Similar shifts have occurred recently among polls on the Republican side. In Maine, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and Sen. John McCain of Arizona each topped separate Republican polls taken in 2007.

The campaigning and media frenzy in neighboring New Hampshire the past several days have given Mainers the opportunity to learn more about the candidates, according to Amy Fried, an associate professor of political science at the University of Maine. But it would be a mistake to assume that Mainers will agree with voters across the state line about whom they prefer, she said.

“It’s not as easy as that, unfortunately,” Fried said Tuesday. “A lot’s going to unfold in the next couple of weeks.”

Democrats and Republicans in Maine will hold caucuses on their candidates in early February. The Republican caucuses will be held Feb. 1, 2 or 3, depending on which of those dates local party organizations choose. Democratic caucuses are scheduled for Sunday, Feb. 10.

A handful of states, including Florida, Michigan and South Carolina, will hold contests later this month, while more than 20 other states will hold their contests on Feb. 5, Super Tuesday.

Fried said Maine’s Republican caucus could have some influence on the national race because it will be just days before Super Tuesday. The Democratic caucus stands less chance of playing a national role, she said, because it’s after Feb. 5.

Maine voters tend to value experience in their candidates, according to Fried, but with no incumbent in the race she is not sure that will play a role in the caucuses. Mainers also have a strong independent streak, she said, which could bode well for any candidate who is viewed as having strong appeal outside his or her party.

But unlike New Hampshire’s open primaries, which allow independent voters to cast ballots, caucuses in Maine and elsewhere are open only to registered party members, she said. As a result, crossover appeal is not likely to play a role in who wins in Maine and other caucus states.

Sandy Maisel, a government professor and director of the Goldfarb Center at Colby College in Waterville, indicated Wednesday that the results of New Hampshire, where Obama was projected to beat Clinton, demonstrate the polls sometimes should be taken with a grain of salt.

In Maine, organization likely will be a more significant factor than polls in the outcome because of its status as a caucus state, Maisel wrote in an e-mail. With caucuses, groups of people make their cases for their candidates to their fellow party members, so those who are better organized when the caucus starts usually stand a better chance of seeing their candidate win, he said.

The campaigns themselves have not invested resources in Maine, Maisel said, so the endorsing organizations, such as unions or other advocacy groups, may end up having the biggest influence on the statewide outcome.

According to Julie Flynn, Maine’s deputy secretary of state, unenrolled voters can register with a party on the day of its caucus and participate in that caucus. To switch parties, voters must have been enrolled in one of them for at least three months and must apply to their local registrar of voters to do so, she said.

Anyone who switches parties must wait 15 calendar days for that switch to become official and during that time cannot participate in any sort of party primary or caucus, Flynn said.

Julie O’Brien, the Maine Republican Party’s executive director, said Monday that she hopes local party organizations will hold their caucuses on either Feb. 1 or 2 rather than on Feb. 3.

“The third is Super Bowl Sunday, so we’re really encouraging them to have it done by Saturday night,” she said.

The caucus results will be nonbinding, O’Brien said, because of the possibility of candidates dropping out of the race between the caucuses and the state Republican Convention in Augusta on May 2.

More information about the meeting times and locations for the Republican caucuses will be posted on the party’s Web site, www.mainegop.com, as it becomes available, O’Brien said.

Information about times and locations for Democratic caucuses can be found on the Maine Democratic Party’s Web site, www.mainedems.org.

btrotter@bangordailynews.net

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