A week ago, when Democrats and Republicans in Maine were gearing up to hold their separate caucuses, political observers said the only one that might have national implications would be the one held before Super Tuesday, not the one held after.

What a difference a week – and approximately 100 delegates – can make.

The belief went that Maine’s Republican caucus might offer a boost for the Republican presidential candidates as they headed into Super Tuesday, the usually decisive multistate contest in which more than half of the delegates needed for each party’s nomination would be at stake. Maine’s Democratic caucus, scheduled for the weekend after the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday votes, probably wasn’t going to matter, the pundits said.

But politics – like Super Bowl games – can be unpredictable. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who won the Maine caucuses less than a week ago, suspended his campaign Thursday after finishing well behind Sen. John McCain in Super Tuesday’s Republican contests. On the other hand, the outcome that same day in the Democratic voting for Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama was so close that both candidates have hurriedly scheduled appearances in the Bangor area for today, the day before Maine Democratic caucuses are held.

“The show comes to Bangor,” Anthony Corrado, professor of government at Colby College in Waterville, said Friday. “What we’re looking at is the most important Maine Democratic caucus in decades.”

Each candidate is after delegates in Maine, according to academic political observers. The estimates for how many delegates Clinton and Obama each have secured differ, but every estimate indicates the totals are close. Clinton is believed to have approximately 1,000 delegates and Obama roughly 100 fewer. The goal for each to win their party’s nomination is 2,025 delegates, and 34 of them will come from Maine.

But as University of Maine political science professor Amy Fried pointed out, not all of them will be decided on Sunday, and if it’s close, not all of them will go to the winner.

Each state has a different set of rules – some, like Maine’s, are more complicated than others – that dictate how delegates are apportioned, she said. And in a race this close, every delegate matters.

In Maine Democrats’ system, 24 of the 34 delegates are pledged to particular candidates in proportion to the voting in the caucuses. Nine of those 24 emerge from caucuses in the 1st Congressional District and seven from the 2nd District caucuses. The other eight are at-large party leader and elected officials delegates.

The 10 unpledged delegates are made up of Maine Democratic Party notables.

Fried said the tight race may result in a record number of Mainers attending Sunday’s Democratic caucuses, but it won’t be good for the party if a clear-cut frontrunner doesn’t emerge soon. It could heighten divisions within the party and make the Republicans, who are expected to unite behind frontrunner McCain, more appealing to independents, she said.

“If this situation goes on for a while, it could cause problems for the [Democrats],” Fried said. “This really is an extraordinary presidential nomination season.”

Chris Potholm, government professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, said Friday the Clinton campaign likely views Maine as a place where it could break up a string of potential wins for Obama in other states.

Today, Louisiana is having its Democratic primary while Nebraska and Washington state are holding caucuses. On Tuesday, Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia are having their primaries. Obama tends to do better in caucus states and is expected to do well in Louisiana and the “Potomac Primary” states on Tuesday, which have sizable African-American populations, Potholm said.

“If [Clinton] can make a stand in Maine, that can take some of the edge off,” Potholm said.

Surrogates from each campaign have recently appeared or are expected to appear soon in other parts of Maine, but pundits say there are several ways to interpret the decision by the candidates themselves to appear in person in the Bangor area rather than in southern Maine.

Clinton tends to appeal more than Obama to blue-collar Democrats, they said, and so she may be trying to connect with them in northern Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where they make up a larger percentage of the population. Or Obama might be trying to avoid southern Maine’s 1st District, where the Clinton campaign is believed to be well-organized, some said.

Another theory is that voters in southern Maine were more exposed to the candidates and to their ads in the days leading up to the Jan. 8 primary in neighboring New Hampshire and so have their minds more made up than voters in northern Maine.

But Arden Manning, executive director of the Maine Democratic Party, said Friday that each candidate might have an eye more on the general election in November than on Sunday’s caucuses. Maine is only one of two states, the other being Nebraska, that splits its electoral votes in presidential general elections, he said. Winning the 2nd District, which tends to lean less Democratic than the 1st District, could make a difference in a close general election, he said.

“I do see it being close in Maine,” Manning said of Sunday’s outcome.

As for briefly getting the national spotlight, Manning said, interest in the candidate visits could result in record numbers of Democrats attending Sunday’s caucuses. He said 17,000 people attended party caucuses in 2004, and he expects at least that many to turn out this year.

“We watch New Hampshire get its moment in the sun [every four years],” Manning said. “It feels good to have the opportunity ourselves.”

btrotter@bangordailynews.net

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How to see Hillary Clinton in Orono

9:30-11 a.m. Saturday, Feb. 9

Student Recreation and Fitness Center

on the University of Maine campus

“Solutions for America” town hall

with Hillary Clinton

Doors open at 8 a.m.

Parking at Maine Center for the Arts

parking lot

No bags, signs or banners permitted

How to see Barack Obama in Bangor

2:30 p.m. Saturday, Feb. 9

Bangor Auditorium

“Stand for Change” rally with Barack Obama

Doors open at 2:30 p.m.

Obama is scheduled to begin remarks shortly after doors open

No bags, signs or banners permitted