If Gov. Baldacci’s proposed budget fix becomes law, school districts would see about $23 million cut from the annual state aid package. The cuts will hurt schools as they develop their budgets for next year, and in the end, will probably result in higher local property tax bills.

But that result could have been avoided if school districts had done a better job of reading the writing on the wall, where two key trends emerged in recent years.

The first trend is increased state aid to schools. Though he is vilified by many educational leaders for his consolidation initiative, the governor has been a friend to local school districts. It was under his leadership that the state developed a plan to ratchet up state funding of local education to meet the constitutionally required 55 percent, a threshold that had not been reached in decades and that the administration continues to work toward, albeit one year more slowly under the current budget plan, despite difficult financial times.The second trend, which the governor’s LD 1 sought to address, is that many local school budgets have increased by 4 percent to 8 percent – beyond the spending caps contained in LD1 – while municipal and state budgets have had spending hikes of just 1 percent to 3 percent – within their LD 1 spending caps. School boards will argue that federal and state mandates have been underfunded, that special education, transportation and heating costs have grown at alarming rates, and that health insurance costs for the large school staffs have also grown by double-digit percentages.

School boards must understand the new fiscal environment and take steps to align their budgets accordingly. While no one would suggest educators are overpaid or underworked, the double whammy of longevity “step” raises along with across-the-board cost-of-living increases is not affordable. Nor are health insurance benefits with low deductibles and co-pays.

And schools must consider increasing class size, perhaps through attrition as baby boom teachers retire. Maine’s student-teacher ratio is 11.9 to 1, the fourth lowest in the U.S., compared to the median ratio of 14.1 to 1. Faculty numbers can be better managed without radically increasing class size when districts consolidate.

Gov. Baldacci has consistently – some would say stubbornly – maintained his “no new taxes” pledge. To some extent, that stance is disingenuous because property taxes will rise as a result of the governor’s budget measure. Legislators may claim credit for backing the governor on his stand, but when they return home, they will likely hear that not all tax increases were avoided. At the same time, school boards must do their part to rein in spending to minimize property tax increases.