PUBLIC OPINION: SO WHAT?

The video clip of the vice president reacting to the observation by ABC News’ Martha Raddatz that most Americans view the invasion of Iraq as a mistake, was classic Dick Cheney: “So?” he said, as if he had no idea that further comment was expected. She replied, “So, you don’t care what the American people think?” Mr. Cheney, in his matter-of-fact way, answered: “No. I think you cannot be blown off course by the fluctuations in the public opinion polls.”

Beyond adding that response to the litany of arrogant and dismissive remarks the autocratic vice president has made, the exchange raises an important issue: What is the role of public opinion in a democratic republic?

When he was elected, President Bush promised he would not govern based on data gleaned from focus groups, a veiled shot at President Clinton, and he has certainly kept that campaign pledge. But at some point, the public’s view of Mr. Bush as resolute and steadfast has transformed into the view that he is indifferent and out-of-touch.

Should opinion polls drive policy? A poll conducted in late January by www.WorldPublicOpinion.org found that 81 percent of Americans say “when making an important decision government leaders should pay attention to opinion polls.” Only 18 percent said the polls should be ignored. Some 94 percent said government leaders should pay attention to public opinion in the period between presidential elections; Bush spokeswoman Dana Perino, trying to spin the vice president’s remarks, said the American people “have input every four years.”

A key qualifier may be the breadth and longevity of the public opinion; is the opposition to a policy sustained over many demographic groups and over many months, or is it a snapshot in time? The first President Bush saw the latter effect. Most polls in the run-up to the liberation of Kuwait showed great trepidation on the part of Americans to a U.S. invasion. A week after the ground war was over, Mr. Bush enjoyed 90 percent approval ratings.

As president, Abraham Lincoln presided over a war so unpopular that it spurred draft riots. Yet history, even in the immediate decades after the war, judged that Lincoln took the long view and was wise to stay the course in preserving the Union. Franklin Roosevelt’s economic and foreign policies, judged one by one, may not have garnered majority support. A 1938 Gallup poll showed his approval ratings at just 46 percent. But in the polls that mattered, in the elections of 1936, 1940 and 1944, he won approval.

Public opinion, it seems, must inform public decision-making. Effective leaders are those who anticipate opposition to challenging policies, then work to persuade the public to support – or at least not oppose – a new approach. President Reagan and President Clinton each succeeded in getting Americans to consider different fixes to old problems.

By the breadth and longevity measure, it would seem Americans have made up their minds about the decision to invade Iraq, with most seeing it as a mistake. As that view melds with the understanding that a deteriorating economy is at least in part tied to the cost of that war, the next president must either explain the reasons for staying the course in Iraq – a daunting task – or agree with the public view and craft a policy that assuages it.