Maine Democrats, GOP plan campaign strategies

AUGUSTA – Looking toward the presidential election atop the November ballot, Democrats are seeking to carry once-rocked-ribbed-Republican Maine for their national standard-bearer for a fifth consecutive time.

Republicans, vowing to make the battle for the state’s four electoral votes competitive, think they have a statewide winner in Maine’s U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic Rep. Tom Allen.

Democrats, refusing to concede that race, hope to flex their strength in the separate 1st and 2nd Congressional District voting for the U.S. House of Representatives.

And though it’s not yet July, both parties are making plans to treat Maine as a battleground state, whether others do or not.

Peter Chandler, who left his post as 2nd District Rep. Mike Michaud’s top aide to head the state party’s coordinated campaign organization, says his operation has bulked up already with an eye toward the fall.

With several dozen field organizers, Chandler says Democratic cadres are larger than at the end of the election cycle four years ago. Democratic offices should be in place virtually throughout the state by the end of the month, and Chandler says candidate cooperation is high.

“When the party leaders are united, … the activists will come together and support that effort,” Chandler says. “We’ve got all the players on board.”

Republican consultant David Emery, a former congressman with close to 40 years of experience in Maine elections, allows that the GOP, which holds both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats, often has been outdone by the grass-roots activity of Democrats in recent years, but says that is only part of the picture.

Emery says Democratic reliance on field organization is natural for a party that counts on issue-oriented people, from organized labor activists to gay rights partisans, to supply campaign troops.

But given a normally high level of voter turnout in Maine, Emery suggests that, practically speaking, “the field operation is not going to be able to turn out more people.”

Emery says a key factor for Republican success has become putting forth “moderate” candidates rather than “very conservative” ones and that presidential nominee John McCain can fit that bill.

“A more central Republican candidate has a chance at doing well in Maine, whereas a candidate from the far right would probably have no chance at all,” Emery says.

Six years ago when Collins won a second Senate term, she waxed a strong Democratic challenger, Chellie Pingree, who is now widely regarded to be the favorite in the 1st District showdown with Republican Charles Summers, an Iraq veteran.

Democrats maintain that Allen, a six-term congressman representing much of southern and coastal Maine, is coming on in the Senate race. A third potential presence is independent Herbert Hoffman, whose challenged ballot status was up to the secretary of state over the weekend.

While one Democrat or another has won the 1st District seat in every election but one since 1984, the 2nd Congressional District has been in Democratic hands since 1994. This year, Michaud is seeking a fourth term and is a prohibitive favorite over Republican John Frary, a little-known retired history professor from Farmington.

If Emery puts his faith in how individual candidates present themselves and questions the notion of coattails in an independent-minded electorate, Chandler says Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy may well buoy the entire Democratic drive up and down the ticket.

“Senator Obama clearly brings a certain amount of energy and a new group of people to the table,” Chandler says.

Wide open to interpretation is whether or how Maine’s heated referendum culture influences political activity and debate through the summer and fall.

Primary backers of a hot-button anti-gay rights initiative closed up shop last week, but anti-tax activists remain at work on several projects. One proposal could put the future of Maine’s controversial Dirigo Health insurance program in voters’ hands.