The “dog days” of summer are here, and polls abound with projections about the November U.S. Senate race between Tom Allen and Susan Collins. A July 8 Pan Atlantic SMS Group poll found Collins leading Allen by 56 percent to 31 percent, a 25 percent advantage for Collins. Back on June 16, a Rasmussen Reports poll had the race at 49 percent to 42 percent, a 7 point advantage for Collins. Rasmussen also had an earlier poll on April 8 with Collins at 54 to 38 percent for Allen, a 16 percent advantage.

A look at history may show which of these poll results is most accurate.

In 2008, the presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is being compared to the 1996 race between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole. Having worked as a staffer for Bob Dole when he ran for president in 1988, I believe that historical comparisons, much like polls, can provide an insight into how people think, but not necessarily how they will vote.

Dole was of the older generation, the “Greatest Generation” as some labeled them, a wounded military hero, generally perceived as politically moderate and the ultimate political insider as Majority Leader of the Republicans in the Senate. Clinton, on the other hand, was of the baby boomer generation, had not served in the military, had a young child in Chelsea and was viewed by some as a moderate Democrat.

McCain, like Dole, has a long history in the Senate, is a war hero, is of today’s older generation, and also perceived as politically moderate. Obama, like Clinton, is much younger than McCain, has not served in the military, has two younger children, and has not really been tested at the national level of politics. Obama is viewed as part of the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party. His being more politically liberal than Clinton may be the most significant difference in between the current race and 1996.

With that historical analysis in mind, the 1994 Senate race between Olympia Snowe and Tom Andrews offers a broader perspective on the polling results in the Collins-Allen race.

Snowe represented the northern Second Congressional District. Collins is from Bangor, raised in Aroostook County. Andrews was a congressman from the southern half of Maine, like Tom Allen. Andrews was definitely considered liberal, which many would argue Allen is as well. Collins fits the mold of Snowe, a moderate Republican.

Bottom line: Snowe beat Andrews 60 percent to 36 percent, a 24 percent win for Snowe. The Pan Atlantic poll found that 50 percent of southern Mainers were leaning toward voting for Collins; Snowe got a similar 54 percent in Cumberland County in 1994. That poll said Collins got her strongest support from northern and Down East Maine, with 62 percent favoring Collins. In the 1994 Snowe-Andrews race, Snowe got nearly 72 percent of Aroostook County and 65 percent of Hancock County.

I believe these polls and this historical comparison to the Snowe-Andrews 1994 Senate race are compelling. I’m calling it for Collins by 20 points.

Ken Fredette of Newport is an attorney and a Harvard Kennedy School of Government master’s degree candidate. He has worked on numerous political campaigns.