FORT KENT – For some of northern Maine’s most vulnerable residents, the reality of the coming winter may come down to life or death with many counting on neighbors helping neighbors.

That was part of the message at a forum at the University of Maine at Fort Kent on Monday afternoon, where about 100 representatives from various service agencies pooled their knowledge and experience in looking for a solution.

“I’ve been with the agency for 33 years, and this is the worst I’ve seen it,” said Steve Farnham, executive director of the Aroostook Area Agency on Aging. “The price of [heating] fuel has doubled since last year.”

That sharp increase in heating costs is what has Farnham and his colleagues worried about the coming cold weather season in Aroostook County where winter temperatures can drop to subzero for weeks at a time.

With the price of home heating fuel predicted to rise to record levels between $4.50 and $5 a gallon, many in northern Maine are in a crisis, Farnham said.

According to data supplied by Farnham’s agency, 1,230 elderly people live alone in The County and lack the financial means to pay for fuel through the winter.

An additional 469 older couples and 707 disabled residents also will not be able to afford to heat their homes.

On top of this are close to 3,000 children living in homes where the cost of heating is out of reach for the families.

“This is the reality we are facing,” Farnham said. “This scares me.”

For many in past years, assistance has come from the federally funded Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, but those funds likely will not come in time to meet immediate needs.

“I predict most people will be able to purchase enough fuel to get them through until Christmas or the week after,” Farnham said. “Right around then the tanks will begin to run dry.”

Given that Congress has not passed a budget for the coming fiscal year and, according to Farnham, historically they have not done so by the start of October, funding for programs like LIHEAP will be slow in coming.

“I don’t see the federal government responding until February or March,” he said.

Representatives of Maine’s delegation indicated there are funds targeted toward heating assistance in Maine, including $36.5 million as part of a supplemental amendment in the proposed budget.

“One of the unknowns is we don’t know if Congress will even pass the budget,” Farnham said. “Even if they are successful, we don’t know if the president will sign it.”

What Farnham does know is that any immediate assistance must come from the local level.

“It’s going to fall into the laps of municipalities, churches, your neighbors, parents and children. Otherwise a lot of folks up here just won’t make it.”

Help is available at the local level, including the state-funded General Assistance program, but for many that is not a viable option.

“To say to an older person, ‘You have to apply for assistance’ is a tough one,” Farnham said. “A lot of them won’t do it.”

At least one official agreed.

“It won’t happen. I’ve been administering General Assistance for 10 years and have never seen a white-haired person come in,” Ryan Pelletier, St. Agatha town manager, said. “They have too much pride to ask, and the last thing we want is to see someone freeze to death.”

The solution, according to many at Monday’s forum, is creating a network at the grass-roots level with individuals willing to take an active role in the health and well-being of their neighbors.

“We need to put our collective heads together,” said Jason Parent, director of development and college relations with Northern Maine Community College.

Suggestions for meeting the short term needs ranged from asking rural and city mail carriers to keep a watchful eye on individual homes to establishing a list of volunteers willing to house people temporarily who find themselves with no heat.

Residents need to ask themselves whether they know who their elderly neighbors are and take a moment to check in on them, Farnham said.

“If you don’t see this as a crisis, you are missing the boat,” Claudia Stevens, executive director of United Way of Aroostook, said. “What we have here is the opportunity for the ‘perfect storm’ with rising costs of heat, food and medications.”

While Stevens said her agency is pulling together as many heating assistance programs and alternatives as possible, she is not optimistic.

“Ultimately it will come back to the community, and we will be responsible for our friends, neighbors and those around us to get them through.”

Parent said the morning forum pointed out a “glaring need” for some type of public service campaign to let people know what agencies have heating assistance programs and how to reach them.

In addition, Parent pointed out the state’s 211 phone system that works much like the emergency call numbers, but for human services.

Other suggestions from the forum included communities opening heated senior centers with day programs for residents, church groups taking an active involvement in guiding residents to appropriate programs, establishing a special fund through donations, floating municipal bonds to fund heating assistance, and creating community wood lots where residents could harvest free firewood.

Another forum is slated for 8:30 a.m. today at Houlton Regional Hospital.