Will race factor into presidential race in Maine?

AUGUSTA – In the second-whitest state in the nation, race will play a role in how Mainers vote in the presidential race, but political observers do not believe it will be a big role.

“There are pockets of racism, for sure,” said University of Southern Maine professor Marvin Drucker, who teaches at the Lewiston-Auburn College. “But there is just not a history of racism in our politics. I don’t see it having a major role in Maine.”

Maine’s population is 97 percent white, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Only Vermont, at 98 percent, is less diverse.

There have been several national reports of race playing a significant role in some states with voters indicating they will vote against Barack Obama because he is black and will vote for John McCain because he is white.

“We know there is some of that,” said University of Maine professor Mark Brewer. “But I don’t think there is anyone who can tell you for sure how that will play out in November.”

He said there have been several studies on race and elections that show voters do not answer polling questions truthfully on the issue of race. Brewer said voters do not want to appear to be racist, even if race will influence their vote.

“When I have had candidates in other states, either African-Americans or running against African-Americans, in places like Michigan or Pennsylvania and North Carolina, I have always figured 5 percent were not telling the truth when they said race was not a factor,” said Bowdoin College professor Chris Potholm. He owns a polling firm that has worked on contests in several states, including Maine.

“I don’t see much impact in Maine, maybe a percentage or two,” he said, “but that may be high.”

University of Maine at Farmington professor Jim Melcher agreed there would be little impact in Maine and said voters often do not answer polling questions truthfully.

“After an election if you ask on a poll how a person voted, you always get far more people supporting the winner than actually voted for the winner,” he said. “My hunch is it [race] will not really have much of an impact.”

Melcher pointed to a national Gallup poll of 926 registered voters released earlier this month. The survey indicated racism cuts both ways, with some voters rejecting McCain because he is white while others would not vote for Obama because of his race.

“I think it’s about a wash,” Melcher said, “Probably less of an impact here than in some other parts of the country.”

But, he agreed, all polling on the race issue has problems and, in a very close contest, a percentage point or two could make the difference.

Brewer said some academic studies have agreed with Potholm’s 5 percent estimate of untruthful responses to poll questions on race, but he said the estimates could be low – or high.

“What’s the real number? I don’t know what it is but I think it is higher than 5 percent,” he said. “It could play a role here, I just don’t know.”

Drucker said he had been involved in polling residents of the Lewiston-Auburn community, assessing the “social capital” of the various social networks in the area. He said the polling, when compared to other cities around the country, indicate there is “probably less racism” in Maine than in other areas of the country.

Potholm said race would play less of a role in Maine than the coming visit of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee, to Bangor on Thursday. He said the McCain-Palin ticket has a shot at taking the 2nd Congressional District and picking up its one electoral vote.

“What they need is to have her come in and spend a whole day campaigning in the district,” he said. “Now that would have an impact.”

Drucker said the economy has become such an overriding issue this election that all other concerns, including race, may be set aside by the voters.

“The economy is such a dominant issue, it’s sort of like, ‘Oh, I don’t care what race this person is if they can get us out of the economic slump we are in,'” he said.