MILLINOCKET – With a brilliant late-afternoon sun warming his back, Paul Davis moved through what barely passed for a crowd gathered at the town green for some hot dogs, free entertainment and political schmoozing.

Davis, the plain-spoken, career state trooper from Sangerville who currently leads minority Republicans in the Maine Senate, was not exactly basking in the ebbing sunlight.

Instead, he spent most of the balmy afternoon giving the cold shoulder to Stephen Stanley, his Democratic opponent from Medway who is also a sitting Democratic state senator. The candidates quickly staked out opposite portions of the green in an unmistakable effort to avoid each another.

While both men have clashed on policy issues in the past, the latest skirmish in District 20 reflects a campaign with more personal and nasty overtones.

At the core of the conflict is a mailer distributed earlier this month and paid for by the Maine Democratic Party on Stanley’s behalf, touting the candidate’s millworker heritage and family values.

But it also characterizes Davis as a politician who doesn’t support the people of his district. The mailer depicted the Republican as a senator who voted to double his legislative pay in a dispute over the Democratic majority budget.

It also implied Davis didn’t need his legislative salary because “he’s already earning state retirement benefits” from his years as a Maine state trooper.

“He just wanted to spend a million of taxpayers’ hard-earned dollars to score points for Republicans in Augusta,” the flier stated.

“I could not believe it,” Davis said. “I just saw red. How do you think that made me feel? My friends and family reading lies that imply I’m some sort of fat cat living it up at their expense. I don’t mind tellin’ ya, I’m angry.”

Stanley regrets Davis’ characterization in the mailer, which he said he had “nothing to do with.” Still, Davis said he has never received an apology from Stanley.

The bitterness and desperate tactics in the Davis-Stanley race have become an underlying metaphor for the pitched battles to control the Maine Senate, where Democrats currently hold a one-seat advantage.

With Maine voters frustrated by the inability of a Democratic House, Senate and governor to craft and pass substantive tax reform in Maine, some election watchers are predicting Republicans will make stunning advances on Nov. 2.

The GOP may regain control of the 35-member Senate for the first time in 10 years and reclaim new ground in the 151-seat House of Representatives to nearly even their numbers with Democrats.

“This all goes back to the tax issue,” said MaryEllen FitzGerald, president of Critical Insights polling services. “There’s been a lot of discontent about the tax structure and the inability of the Democratic majority to be able to construct a tax relief package. That is the underlying issue.”

Sometimes referred to as the “upper body” and the “deliberative body” – sometimes as “the muffin club” – the Maine Senate might actually be better described as “the killing floor” where bills are more-easily defeated.

That is, of course, why lobbyists love the Senate. It takes fewer undecided votes – and hence fewer arms to twist – to defeat a piece of legislation.

For the last six years, control of the Senate has teetered on the brink with razor-thin majorities of political power. Democrats took control of the Senate in the last election two years ago, winning 18 seats to the GOP’s 17.

In the previous Legislature, the two parties actually shared power when an independent senator was elected, creating a 17-17 tie between the Democrats and Republicans.

But this election year is different and, some say, favors Republicans who believe they have 19 races locked up and could gain as many as 21 seats or more. Due to term limits or personal reasons, 14 incumbents did not run for re-election – eight Republicans and six Democrats.

While those numbers appear to favor Democrats, seven of the seats are being sought by sitting Republican House members, while only four are being challenged by sitting House Democrats.

Senate Democratic Majority Leader Sharon A. Treat, of Farmingdale, said her party has recruited “some really great, hard-working” candidates who should be able to “retain the majority easily.”

But Treat also acknowledged that with so many open seats, there will be a number of races that will be “fairly close,” creating outcomes that are “hard to predict.”

She rejected the notion that Democrats will be held accountable for the failure to enact a tax reform policy and insisted that Republicans could have done more on that issue.

“The Republicans feel they had zero responsibility,” she said. “Now their approach is to ‘throw the bums out’ and we’ll get started. We need to come up with proposals that address all of the concerns. All of us recognize that something needs to be done.”

Also thrown in the political mix are two Green Independent Party candidates running for Senate seats in southern Maine Districts, both of whom are expected to draw support from traditionally Democratic voters. Then there are three unenrolled Senate candidates, but their impact on those three-way races is unclear.

Another factor in the Senate races this year involves the redistricting by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court which redrew many of the boundaries of old districts to reflect population changes over the last decade.

To achieve what it perceived as the fairest possible solution statewide, the court placed two incumbents – Davis and Stanley – in the same district. Republicans and, even some Democrats, feel the newly drawn district favors Davis, who retained more of his original district than Stanley.

Still, Davis lost Dexter – a historically reliable GOP town – along with Garland, Corinna and East Corinth when all were placed in another district. He also picked up Millinocket, the largest community in the district and a pro-labor, Democratic stronghold that just happens to be Stanley’s hometown.

“If we can get 30 percent in Millinocket we’ll be happy,” said one GOP campaign worker.

Other key Senate races to watch in northern and eastern Maine include:

. District 32, where state Rep. Joe Perry, D-Bangor, is challenging incumbent Sen. Tom Sawyer, R-Bangor.

. District 28, where John Linnehan Jr., an Ellsworth businessman, is challenging incumbent Sen. Dennis Damon, D-Trenton.

. District 26, where incumbent Sen. Pamela Hatch, D-Skowhegan, is defending her seat against state Rep. Peter Mills, R-Cornville.

Other races that have piqued some interest include Senate District 35 in Aroostook County where incumbent Sen. John L. Martin has been returned to either the House or the Senate for nearly 40 years.

A GOP newcomer, Cathy A. Martin of Caribou, is reportedly campaigning hard and recently won a student mock election at Van Buren High School signaling that many parents in the area may not be guaranteed votes for John Martin.

In the House, Democrats think they have less to fear about losing seats than their Senate counterparts. Fifty-eight Democratic and 45 Republican incumbents are seeking re-election along with one Green Independent incumbent and an unenrolled incumbent.

That leaves 46 open seats that are largely contested evenly by both parties. There are five unenrolled candidates besides the incumbent and 19 new Green Independent Party candidates running for office.

The Democrats’ fight to hang onto their 80-seat majority is spearheaded by House Democratic floor leader John Richardson of Brunswick. While he concedes Republicans could improve on their 66-seat bloc in the House, Richardson doubts the GOP will be able to come close to their numbers from the mid-1990s when either party could enjoy a majority depending on that morning’s quorum call.

He flatly rejected the premise that Maine voters hold Democrats responsible for failing to deliver tax reform this year.

“I think that people instead blame the Legislature and the governor collectively,” Richardson said. “It’s not been a Democratic failure – it’s been a Democratic and Republican failure. What happens in these House races is that they are intensely personal and people going out and making a personal connection with the constituents they intend to serve. If they do that, they will be trusted with the vote to come here and serve. It’s that basic.”

What will influence the Democratic outcome, Richardson said, is the huge Democratic turnout anticipated for the presidential election and the state’s two congressional districts.

He’s also hungrily eyeing the state’s unenrolled voter bloc, which represents slightly more than a third of the state’s registered voters.

“Our polling indicates that when independents vote, they tend to vote in higher numbers for Democrats than for Republicans,” Richardson said.

Joe Bruno, the House Republican floor leader from Raymond, couldn’t disagree more with Richardson’s assessment of the political landscape. Bruno said Republicans could claim between 78 to 80 House seats on Nov. 2 and “71 to 72 at the worst.”

The pugnacious GOP organizer said Maine voters are well aware that young people are leaving the state in record numbers in search of employment opportunities and that majority Democrats and a Democratic governor have been at the helm.

“People know the Maine economy is the Number One issue,” he said. “The Democrats have failed to stimulate the economy.”

House races to watch in northern and eastern Maine include:

. District 21, GOP incumbent William Rogers Jr. is defending his seat against Charles Fisher, a Brewer Democrat and former state representative.

. District 27, GOP incumbent Earl E. Richardson is up against Sharon Libby Jones, a Greenville Democrat and former state representative.

. District 35, Democratic incumbent Ted Koffman of Bar Harbor is being challenged by Mount Desert Republican Caspar W. Weinberger Jr., son of the former U.S. secretary of defense.

. District 42, Republican incumbent Jeffrey Kaelin of Winterport is battling former Democratic lawmaker Joseph Brooks of Winterport.