The Legislature’s Appropriations Committee will soon decide whether to support Gov. John Baldacci’s idea of selling up to $40 million in lottery proceeds for 10 years in exchange for $250 million up front. The public is free to dislike the idea without a thought of how the resulting budget shortfall would be filled. Lawmakers don’t have that luxury, so before rejecting it they should have a good idea of how they will meet the state’s obligations.

The lottery sale is a short-term solution to an ongoing budget problem. It depends on growth -the latest budget forecast put revenues another $17 million up – and good luck, which is a risky way to legislate. The administration says that not only will the sale close the budget gap, but if the lottery receipts are sold to the Maine State Retirement System, it will also have the advantage of lowering the state’s unfunded liability to that account. Even that idea, however, is not universally admired.

The retirement system’s chairman, David S. Wakelin, recently testified before the Legislature, “Personally, I would think it would be better for the state to sell its lottery receipts as a tax-exempt bond paying less than 4 percent interest, rather than selling those receipts to the retirement system at a rate in excess of 8 percent.”

Some Democrats already are talking about raising taxes to cover the cost of the missing lottery-sale proceeds and restoring another $20 million or $30 million in cuts the governor has proposed, a total that would exceed the tax cut through LD 1. Gov. Baldacci has rejected the idea; certainly most Republicans would oppose it, and their votes will count should the budget remain under debate beyond the end of March.

Finding savings equal to $250 million is another possibility, and there could well be that level of savings in the biennial budget, but coaxing it out of programs would mean reforming the way government works, an unlikely prospect in the next couple of months, though one lawmakers should consider for the biennium. Politically and practically, they could not find that level of savings by merely slicing away programs.

The risk of approving the lottery sale is that in two years Maine would still be short of revenue needed and not have the $35 million or $40 million annually from the lottery. That is, it would more or less be in the same situation it is in now, which is a strong possibility. That seems like a risk worth taking. At the very least, having the Department of Health and Human Services well along with its reform should help the state’s bottom line.

Legislators have a difficult choice because Maine’s budget is in a difficult place. They are free to dislike the lottery idea but should not discard it until they have a fairly good idea what would sit in its place.